贵州茅台：业绩符合预期，Q3非标占比或提升明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][15]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 388.45 billion CNY and net profit of 191.32 billion CNY in Q3 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 15.29% and 13.23% respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the company is increasing its non-standard product offerings to enhance performance, while maintaining stable pricing and inventory levels for its flagship products [5]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 15% in 2024 and 10% in 2025, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 15% and 10% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue from Moutai liquor reached 325.59 billion CNY, up 16.32% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue grew by 13.14% to 62.46 billion CNY [2]. - Direct sales revenue increased by 23.50% to 182.61 billion CNY, with the direct sales channel's revenue share rising to 47.06% [3]. - Q3 gross margin decreased slightly to 91.05%, and net margin fell to 51.11% [4]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 was reported at 78.00 billion CNY, a decline of 60.24% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 427.46 billion CNY by 2026, with total liabilities remaining stable [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 173.65 billion CNY in 2024 and 191.70 billion CNY in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 86.28 billion CNY and 95.31 billion CNY respectively [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 59.49 CNY in 2023 to 68.68 CNY in 2024 [11].