PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-29 09:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024, with a revenue of 182.77 billion yuan, down 5.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.81 billion yuan, down 41.23% year-on-year [2] - The settlement gross margin remained stable, while the investment intensity has decreased, indicating a cautious approach to new investments [2] - The company maintains a sufficient amount of resources available for settlement, with a contract liability scale increasing by 15.46 billion yuan compared to the previous half [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a signed amount of 241.69 billion yuan, down 27.89% year-on-year, and a signed area of 13.50 million square meters, down 29.66% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.9%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.7%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 13.21 billion yuan, 14.19 billion yuan, and 15.10 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.10 yuan, 1.19 yuan, and 1.27 yuan [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 10.91 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 130.60 billion yuan [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.7, 9.0, and 8.5 respectively [3][4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 383.16 billion yuan in 2024 to 416.70 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5% in 2024 [3]