Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 09:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a challenging demand environment, leading to a proactive release of channel risks to secure long-term growth potential [3][5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts downward due to ongoing demand pressures, with expectations of modest growth in the coming years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022: 5,135 million CNY - 2023: 5,962 million CNY - 2024E: 5,971 million CNY (0.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: 6,447 million CNY (8.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,988 million CNY (8.4% YoY growth) [1][8] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022: 1,550 million CNY - 2023: 1,721 million CNY - 2024E: 1,713 million CNY (-0.5% YoY) - 2025E: 1,883 million CNY (9.9% YoY) - 2026E: 2,079 million CNY (10.4% YoY) [1][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022: 2.58 CNY - 2023: 2.87 CNY - 2024E: 2.86 CNY - 2025E: 3.14 CNY - 2026E: 3.46 CNY [1][8] - Profitability Ratios: - EBIT Margin: Expected to decline from 39.6% in 2022 to 37.5% in 2024E, then recover slightly to 38.7% by 2026E [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to decrease from 17.4% in 2022 to 16.3% in 2024E, with a slight recovery to 17.3% by 2026E [1] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 16.6 in 2022 to 12.4 by 2026E [1][8] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 2.88 in 2022 to 2.14 by 2026E [1][8] - EV/EBITDA: Expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2022 to 9.8 by 2026E [1][8] Market Trends - The company is facing a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.0% in revenue and 27.7% in net profit [3][5] - The company is actively adjusting its sales strategies and channel management to cope with the current market conditions, focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and improving sales efficiency [6][7]