GS(601500) 国金证券·2024-10-29 09:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price range of 4.74 to 4.74 RMB [10] - The current market price is 5.36 RMB, and the PE valuation for 2024-2026 is 15.63/8.87/7.13 times respectively [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.99 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 380 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 139.5% [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 1.92 billion RMB, up 33.45% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 7.16% year-on-year to 93 million RMB [2] - The company's tire production and sales reached record highs, with production at 5.7 million units in Q3, up 69% year-on-year, and sales at 5.52 million units, up 55% year-on-year [2] - Overseas production capacity is gradually being released, with the Thailand Phase II project and Cambodia Phase II project expected to reach full production by 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 7.248 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 43.11% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is forecasted to be 545 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 151.98% [6] - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) for 2024E is expected to be 9.28%, increasing to 16.67% by 2026E [6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.05%, down 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.87%, down 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [2] Industry and Market Analysis - The company's overseas semi-steel tire orders remain in high demand, with the Thailand Phase II project achieving a daily production capacity of 27,000 units [2] - The Cambodia Phase II project, which started production in August 2024, is also performing well, with strong demand for both semi-steel and full-steel tires [2] - The company's global multi-base industrial layout has been established, with overseas production capacity expected to drive future growth [3] Valuation and Forecast - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) for 2024E is projected to be 0.343 RMB, increasing to 0.752 RMB by 2026E [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 15.63, decreasing to 7.13 by 2026E [6] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024E is 1.45, decreasing to 1.19 by 2026E [6]