CBMT(603099) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-29 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changbai Mountain (603099.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue growth in Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.55%. However, net profit for the same period was 148 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year [2][3] - The report anticipates that the upcoming winter season will boost business performance, despite short-term profit pressures due to increased costs in asset amortization, facility maintenance, and labor [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from supportive policies for the snow tourism industry, with projections indicating that domestic snow leisure tourism participants may exceed 500 million by 2025, representing a growth of over 25% year-on-year [4] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 595 million yuan, with Q3 revenue at 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.89% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 127 million yuan, down 9.04% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 37.3% [2][3] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 57.9%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased labor and amortization costs [3] - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted to 164 million, 215 million, and 248 million yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 31.7%, and 15.1% [2][4] Market and Operational Insights - The main scenic area received 1.678 million visitors in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.85%, although July saw a decline due to adverse weather conditions [3] - The report highlights the ongoing construction of the Shenyang-Baihe high-speed railway and the second phase of the hot spring project, which are expected to enhance visitor capacity significantly by 2025 [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its unique snow tourism products to capitalize on the expected increase in visitor numbers during the new snow season [4]