消费者服务行业 超配（维持） 消费者服务行业双周报（2025/7/11-2025/7/24） 海南自贸港将于年底封关，期待更多免税细则 投资要点： 消费者服务（中信）指数走势 行 业 研 究 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 2025 年 7 月 25 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn ◼ 行情回顾：2025年7月11日-2025年7月24日，中信消费者服务行业指数 整体上涨4.92%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约1.45个百分点。细分板块中， 旅游板块、酒店板块回升，但教育板块仍下降。行业取得正收益的上市 公司有35家，涨幅前五分别是西藏旅游、凯撒旅业、中国中免、科锐国 际、大连圣亚，取得负收益的有17家，其中跌幅前五的上市公司分别是 豆神教育、博瑞传播、方直科技、ST开元、S ...

又逢盛夏，从BW盛会归来，见识到各路coser入沪的盛况，主会场会展中心之外，市区中心的静安大悦 城也被二次元攻陷。在此之外，"超长版暑期"带领家庭用户开启了更加忙碌的机场和酒店，外国游客在 重点城市的订单增幅也超过130%。传统景区为中心的旅行模式已然升级到由演唱会展会等内容驱动的 新型体验经济模式，同时发生的是年轻客群、银发客群与家庭用户对不同价格产品的多元化需求。越来 越多的地方政府和企业意识到文化商业繁荣和经济增长的直接关系，但同质化的基建、人流增长远高于 人均消费增长的问题也被频繁提及。本期消费下弦月CMC资本高级投资经理庄聿泓执笔、董事总经理 张琳指导，在继续去年地方文旅主题下的续写新章，带给大家一篇结合新的市场需求和商业逻辑下的文 旅新观察。 不变与变：向好趋势下，热点却在不断切换 消费新常态下，文旅行业的亮眼表现让我们看到了自悦需求的韧性。2024年旅游人次逐步恢复到疫情前 水平的同时，人均消费创下历史新高。根据文旅部统计，2024年国内旅游人数56.15亿人次，比2023年 增加7.24亿人次，同比增长14.8%。2024年国内旅游花费5.75万亿元，比2023年增加0.84万亿元，增长 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance across various sectors within the social services industry, particularly in tourism and hospitality, driven by changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions [3][4]. - The hotel industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a more competitive environment, with a notable increase in the number of hotels and rooms available [3][4]. - The demand for duty-free shopping is anticipated to grow due to global economic recovery and consumption upgrades, despite some companies facing revenue declines [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is projected to achieve a 22% increase in revenue and a 28% increase in net profit for H1 2025. Huangshan Tourism is expected to generate revenue of 911 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 13% [3][4]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to see a 7.48% decrease in revenue, with a net loss of 2 million yuan, marking a 110% decline [3][4]. - Tianmu Lake is expected to report a 5% revenue increase to 277 million yuan and a 9% rise in net profit to 58 million yuan [3][4]. Hotel Industry - Huazhu is expected to generate 11.66 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a 2% increase, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, up 18% [3][4]. - Shoulv Hotel is projected to see a 4% decline in revenue to 3.59 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 9% to 391 million yuan [3][4]. - Atour Hotel anticipates a 30% revenue increase to 4.24 billion yuan and a 16% rise in net profit to 653 million yuan [3][4]. Exhibition & Human Resource Services - The report notes increasing competition in the domestic market, with companies like Miao Exhibition expected to achieve a 9% revenue increase to 284 million yuan, despite a significant drop in net profit [3][4]. - Beijing Human Resources is projected to see a 6% revenue increase to 23.29 billion yuan, with a substantial 81% rise in net profit to 785 million yuan [3][4]. Duty-Free Sector - China Duty-Free is expected to report a 9% decline in revenue to 28.58 billion yuan and a 14% decrease in net profit to 2.84 billion yuan [3][4]. - Wangfujing is projected to see an 18% decline in revenue to 4.95 billion yuan, with a 73% drop in net profit to 80 million yuan [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors: 1. Exhibition and events: Lansheng Co., Lisheng Sports, Miao Exhibition 2. Human resources: Beijing Human Resources, Keri International 3. Tourism: Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, Tianmu Lake 4. Hotels: Shoulv Hotel, Huazhu, Atour 5. Duty-free: China Duty-Free, Wangfujing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The tourism sector in A-shares is experiencing significant performance divergence in the first half of 2025, with many companies reporting increased losses while a few are showing substantial profit growth [2][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yunnan Tourism is expected to report a net loss of 90 million to 140 million yuan, an increase in losses by 95.79% to 204.57% compared to the previous year [4]. - Xi'an Tourism anticipates a net loss of 49 million to 69 million yuan, which is relatively stable compared to a loss of 63.66 million yuan in the same period last year [5]. - Changbai Mountain is projected to incur a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss due to increased operational costs and decreased visitor numbers [6]. - Dalian Shengya expects a net loss of 19.08 million to 12.72 million yuan, with a significant drop in net profit from the previous year [6]. - Tibet Tourism is set to achieve a net profit of approximately 2 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [7]. - Xiyu Tourism forecasts a profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan, a decline of 62.55% to 69.36% year-on-year [8]. - Guilin Tourism reports a net profit of about 8 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 19.09 million yuan in the same period last year [10]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism expects a net profit of 90 million to 97 million yuan, an increase of 51.44% to 63.22% year-on-year, driven by new attractions and government subsidies [10]. Group 2: Market Trends and Influences - The performance divergence among tourism companies is influenced by factors such as weather disturbances, cost pressures, and differences in business structures [2][11]. - The summer peak season is anticipated to drive demand, with an expected increase in air travel passenger volume by 5.4% during the 2025 summer season [12]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of peak season demand, policy support, and AI empowerment will catalyze the recovery of natural scenic spots [12]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to remain stable, with a focus on deep experiences and cultural exploration as key consumer demands [12].

截至2025年7月14日收盘，长白山(603099)报收于38.52元，下跌0.21%，换手率1.93%，成交量5.16万 手，成交额1.99亿元。 交易信息汇总 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 7月14日主力资金净流出512.3万元，占总成交额2.57%；游资资金净流入40.42万元，占总成交额0.2%； 散户资金净流入471.88万元，占总成交额2.37%。 交易信息汇总: 7月14日主力资金净流出512.3万元，占总成交额2.57%。 业绩披露要点: 长白山预计2025年1-6月归属净利润亏损158万元至258万元，营业收入约为2.35亿 元，同比减少约7.48%。 公司公告汇总: 受极端天气影响，景区关闭天数增加，接待人数下降，导致营业收入减少；社保 基数提高，险金增加，业务拓展外包和临时用工增加，导致人工成本上升。 长白山旅游股份有限公司2025年半年度业绩预告，证券代码：603099，证券简称：长白山，公告编号： 2025-042。公司监事会及全体监事保证公告内容真实、准确和完整。本期业绩预告适用情形为净 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -2.58 million and -1.58 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The estimated operating revenue for the first half of 2025 is approximately 235 million yuan, representing a decrease of about 7.48% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between -2.75 million and -1.75 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 21.03 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 27.09 million yuan [2] - The increase in labor costs compared to the same period last year is attributed to higher social security bases, increased insurance premiums, and the expansion of outsourced and temporary labor [2] - The company faced operational challenges due to extreme weather, leading to increased closure days for scenic spots and a decline in visitor numbers [2]

Group 1 - New Yi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68%-385.47% for the first half of 2025, reaching between 37 billion to 42 billion yuan, driven by growth in AI-related computing power demand and product structure optimization [2][4] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to sell 99.66% of its stake in the Spanish club Espanyol for 1.3 billion euros, with half of the payment in cash and the other half in shares [3] - *ST Yushun intends to acquire 100% of three companies for a total of 33.5 billion yuan, aiming to diversify its business into data center infrastructure services and related products [4] Group 2 - Salted Fish plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.04%, with a major shareholder intending to sell 5,455,572 shares [5] - Lian Microelectronics expects a net loss of approximately 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Meinian Health anticipates a net loss of 1.92 billion to 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 0.12%-5.83% [7] Group 3 - Chengdi Xiangjiang forecasts a net profit of 28 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 69.29 million yuan in the previous year [8] - Jinpu Titanium plans to acquire 100% of Nanjing Lide Oriental Rubber and Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [9] - Bohai Leasing expects a net loss of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to goodwill impairment from a subsidiary's asset sale [10] Group 4 - Foton Motor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 87.5% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 777 million yuan [11] - Shenwan Hongyuan expects a net profit growth of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [12] - Ganfeng Lithium predicts a net loss of 5.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 7.6 billion yuan in the previous year [13] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [14] - Xiangyang Bearing expects a net loss of approximately 13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, slightly worse than the previous year's loss [15] - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the previous year [16] Group 6 - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 84.3%-120.5% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan [17] - Yunnan Geology expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [18] - Four-dimensional Map expects a net loss of 319 million to 268 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of 3.07%-14.30% [19] Group 7 - Tangrenshen anticipates a net loss of 54 million to 69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year's profit [20] - Changbai Mountain expects a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by approximately 7.48% [21] - Jiu Gui Jiu predicts a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 90.08%-93.39% compared to the previous year [22] Group 8 - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 251 million yuan [23] - Qixia Construction anticipates a net profit of 5.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions [24] - Poly Development expects a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 27.35 billion yuan [25] Group 9 - Anyuan Coal anticipates a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [26] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Beihua Machine, with stock suspension expected for no more than 10 trading days [27] - Bayi Steel expects a net loss of 650 million to 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions [28] Group 10 - Yuegui Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58.67%-77.12% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 215 million to 240 million yuan [29] - Dalian Friendship expects a net loss of 38 million to 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by tax-related issues [30] - Hangfa Power expects a net profit decrease of 84.53%-86.55% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 80 million to 92 million yuan [31] Group 11 - Dongfang Zirconium anticipates a net profit increase of 141.77%-156.80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 25 million to 34 million yuan [32] - Hangzhou Steel expects a net profit decrease of 2% from a major shareholder's planned reduction [33] - Jingao Technology predicts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [34] Group 12 - Shanshan Co. expects a net profit increase of 810.41%-1265.61% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 160 million to 240 million yuan [35] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75%-1174.69% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 493 million to 548 million yuan [36] - Jindi Group expects a net loss of 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [37] Group 13 - Founder Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 22.96 billion to 24.32 billion yuan [38] - Hasi Lian expects a net loss of 98 million to 80 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [39] - Lanhua Ketech expects a net profit decrease of 89.12%-92.75% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 60 million yuan [40] Group 14 - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 58.17%-70.72% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 5.04 billion to 5.44 billion yuan [41] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [42] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 63.64%-118.19% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 12 million to 16 million yuan [43] Group 15 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in sales volume [44] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 178%-317% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 390 million to 585 million yuan [45] - Ruida Futures expects a net profit increase of 50.56%-83.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 206 million to 251 million yuan [46] Group 16 - Debang Co. anticipates a net profit decrease of 84.26%-87.86% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 52 million yuan [47] - Jin Yi Culture expects a net loss of 20 million to 32 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [48] - Hongdian Film expects a net profit increase of 103.55%-160.09% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 180 million to 230 million yuan [49] Group 17 - Qiaqia Food anticipates a net profit decrease of 71.05%-76.25% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 80 million to 97.5 million yuan [50] - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [51] - Xining Special Steel expects a net loss of approximately 234 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by low steel prices [52]

证券代码：603099 证券简称：长白山 公告编号：2025-042 长白山旅游股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●本期业绩预告适用情形：净利润为负值。 ●长白山旅游股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年 半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-258.00 万元至-158.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将出现亏损。 ●预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润为-275.00 万元至-175.00 万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公 司所有者的净利润为-258.00 万元至-158.00万元，与上年同期相比， 将出现亏损。2025 年半年度营业收入约为 2.35 亿元，与上年同期相 1 比减少约 7.48%。 2、预计 2025 年半年度实现归 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

证券代码：603099 证券简称：长白山 公告编号：2025-41 长白山旅游股份有限公司 2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、 会议召开和出席情况 (一)股东大会召开的时间：2025 年 7 月 9 日 (二)股东大会召开的地点：长白山旅游股份有限公司三楼会议室 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： | 1、出席会议的股东和代理人人数 | 465 | | --- | --- | | 2、出席会议的股东所持有表决权的股份总数（股） | 184,142,764 | | 3、出席会议的股东所持有表决权股份数占公司有表决权股 | | | 份总数的比例（%） | 69.0526 | (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，大会主持情况等。 本次股东会由公司董事会召集，参会董事推举姜山为会议主持人。会议采用现 场投票和网络投票相结合的表决方式。会议的通知及召开符合《公司法》、《公司 章程》及国家有 ...