Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.039 billion RMB for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.50%, and a net profit of 0.965 billion RMB, up 16.07% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 17.511 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 22.39%, while net profit was 2.843 billion RMB, up 24.32% year-on-year, aligning with previous expectations [1]. - The company has seen significant volume growth, with Q3 2024 sales volume of sports shoes estimated to have increased by over 22% year-on-year [1]. - The gross and net profit margins improved by 2.54 percentage points to 27.81% and 0.25 percentage points to 16.24% respectively for the first three quarters of 2024, benefiting from order recovery and cost control [1]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth due to the recovery in demand for sports products and the expansion of production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q3 2024 revenue was 6.039 billion RMB, up 18.50% year-on-year; net profit was 0.965 billion RMB, up 16.07% [1]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 17.511 billion RMB, a 22.39% increase; net profit was 2.843 billion RMB, a 24.32% increase [1]. Operational Analysis - Sales volume of sports shoes for January to September was 163 million pairs, with Q3 2024 sales volume estimated to have grown over 22% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) saw a slight decline, attributed to currency fluctuations and changes in product mix [1]. - The company’s gross and net profit margins improved, with gross margin at 27.81% and net margin at 16.24% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. Client and Market Outlook - Core client Deckers reported a 20.1% revenue increase for Q2 2025, with HOKA brand revenue soaring by 34.7%, and raised its revenue guidance for FY25 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the overall recovery in the sports industry, with stable order growth anticipated [1]. Capacity Expansion and Future Projections - New factories in Indonesia and Vietnam have commenced operations, with production capacity gradually increasing [1]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 24.146 billion RMB, 27.790 billion RMB, and 31.709 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 3.887 billion RMB, 4.508 billion RMB, and 5.175 billion RMB [1].
华利集团：景气度维持，期待新客户放量