Himile Science And Technology(002595) 西南证券·2024-10-29 10:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability remains high, with rapid growth in performance [1] - The company achieved revenue of 6.37 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [1] Business Segments - Tire mold segment: The company's market share exceeded 30% in 2023, benefiting from the overseas expansion of domestic tire companies and the growing demand for new energy vehicles and high-performance tires [2] - Large parts segment: The high-margin gas turbine business continues to see strong market demand, with full order books and an increasing proportion of revenue. The wind power business is gradually recovering, with optimized product structure and full production capacity [2] - CNC machine tool segment: Since the launch of machine tool products in 2022, industry recognition has continued to improve, with rapid expansion of revenue scale, and the company's third growth curve is gradually being realized [2] - Contract liabilities reached 240 million yuan by the end of the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 109.7%, indicating strong order support for future development [2] Profitability and R&D - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 34.9%, a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points, and the net margin was 22.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 34.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points, and the net margin was 20.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points [3] - R&D expenses reached 330 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing its competitive advantage in R&D-intensive industries such as tire molds and machine tools [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.94 billion yuan, 2.20 billion yuan, and 2.46 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% over the next three years [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20x, 17x, and 15x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 19.32%, 12.19%, and 9.95% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 20.10%, 13.70%, and 11.88% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Financial Metrics - The company's ROE is expected to be 19.05%, 18.38%, and 17.59% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's EPS is expected to be 2.02 yuan, 2.42 yuan, and 2.75 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's PB ratio is expected to be 4.40x, 3.73x, and 3.17x in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]