老板电器：新房侧需求承压，政策加速行业换新

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4][13] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit declined in 24Q1-Q3, with revenue at 7.4 billion yuan (down 6.78% YoY) and net profit at 1.2 billion yuan (down 12.44% YoY) [1] - The kitchen appliance industry is under pressure due to a 23.9% YoY decline in domestic residential completion area, impacting the company's revenue [2] - The "replacement" policy has shown positive effects, with online sales of kitchen appliances increasing by 28% and 138% YoY in September and October 2024, respectively [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 53.2% in 24Q3, driven by optimized raw material costs, but high sales expenses affected profitability [2] - The company's traditional leadership in range hoods and stoves remains strong, with potential growth in categories like dishwashers and digital kitchen appliances [3] Financial Performance Summary - 24Q3 revenue was 2.67 billion yuan (down 11.07% YoY), with net profit at 440 million yuan (down 18.49% YoY) [1] - The net profit margin for 24Q3 was 16.6%, down 1.5 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's A-share market capitalization is 22.999 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 13.8x for 2024 [4][6] Industry and Market Trends - The kitchen appliance market is gradually recovering due to policy support, with significant growth in both online and offline sales [2] - The company's brand and channel advantages are expected to drive future growth, particularly in new product categories [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 10.72 billion yuan, 11.32 billion yuan, and 12.25 billion yuan, respectively [6] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.66 billion yuan, 1.80 billion yuan, and 1.98 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.76 yuan, 1.91 yuan, and 2.10 yuan, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 13.8x, 12.8x, and 11.6x, respectively [6] - The P/B ratios for 2024-2026 are 2.00x, 1.83x, and 1.67x, respectively [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratios for 2024-2026 are 8.11x, 6.20x, and 5.87x, respectively [6]