新宝股份：外销持续高增，内销增速承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.99%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 785 million yuan, up 6.66% year-on-year [1]. - The external sales continue to show strong growth, with a revenue of 10.11 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 24.15% year-on-year, while domestic sales faced pressure with a revenue of 2.575 billion yuan, down 1.25% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 21.41%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 6.51%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of lower-margin external sales [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, and a net profit of 343 million yuan, up 0.53% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 20.87%, down 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.11%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost and Expenses - The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for the first three quarters of 2024 were 3.4%, 5.16%, 3.54%, and -0.08%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.22, -0.27, -0.29, and +0.92 percentage points [4]. - The financial expense ratio increased year-on-year due to reduced interest income and exchange gains [4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the increase in external orders will drive overall revenue growth, and while domestic sales are underperforming, there is potential for gradual recovery from a low base [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 1.04 billion, 1.20 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5x, 10.8x, and 9.6x [4].