FSL(000541) 国泰君安·2024-10-29 10:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure on revenue but is actively expanding its layout in the smart lighting sector, which is expected to create synergistic effects. The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained, with EPS projected at 0.22, 0.25, and 0.29 yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +16%, +16%, and +15% respectively. The target price is set at 6.60 yuan, based on a 30x PE ratio for 2024 [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendation - The company is rated "Accumulate" despite current revenue pressures, with a target price of 6.60 yuan [3][4]. 2. Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +1.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million yuan, up +5.12% year-on-year [14]. 3. Revenue Analysis - The LED lighting business is expected to face revenue growth pressure due to the real estate sector's post-cycle impact. Traditional LED lighting revenue is projected to decline slightly, while new lighting business revenue is expected to grow by approximately +20% year-on-year [15]. 4. Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.08%, a year-on-year increase of +0.4 percentage points. However, the gross margin for Q3 2024 was 18.59%, a decrease of -1 percentage point year-on-year [16]. 5. Cash Position - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 3.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +14.62% [17]. 6. Strategic Acquisition - The company signed a share acquisition intention agreement with the controlling shareholder of Yilai Smart on October 28, 2024, aiming to acquire over 50% of Yilai Smart's shares. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in smart lighting, particularly in research and development of smart control systems [18][19].