YIZUMI(300415) 西南证券·2024-10-29 11:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yizumi (300415) with a target price of 25.00 RMB [1] Core Views - Yizumi's Q3 2024 revenue reached 13.04 billion RMB, a 33.23% YoY increase, while net profit grew 59.78% YoY to 1.81 billion RMB [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 35.01% in Q3 2024, up 0.87pp YoY and 2.21pp QoQ, driven by increased capacity utilization and lower steel prices [3] - Yizumi's order recovery since March 2024, particularly in injection molding machines, supported Q3 revenue growth, with improved demand from kitchenware, home goods, and small appliances sectors [2] Financial Performance - Yizumi achieved 36.73 billion RMB in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, a 24.95% YoY increase, with net profit reaching 4.80 billion RMB, up 31.71% YoY [2] - The company's net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 14.36%, increasing 2.56pp YoY and 1.08pp QoQ [3] - Yizumi's operating cash flow for 2024E is projected at 174.76 million RMB, with a significant increase to 779.30 million RMB by 2026E [6] Future Projections - Yizumi's net profit is expected to grow at a 25% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, reaching 9.38 billion RMB by 2026 [1] - The company's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.33 RMB in 2024 to 2.00 RMB in 2026 [1] - Yizumi's ROE is projected to rise from 20.38% in 2024 to 20.88% in 2026, indicating improving profitability [6] Operational Efficiency - Yizumi's expense control improved in Q3 2024, with the overall expense ratio decreasing by 1.49pp YoY to 20.57% [3] - The company's asset turnover ratio is expected to increase from 0.70 in 2024 to 0.89 by 2026, reflecting better asset utilization [6] - Yizumi's inventory turnover ratio is projected to remain stable at around 1.92-1.93 from 2024 to 2026 [6] Industry Position - Yizumi's injection molding machine business benefited from the industry's replacement cycle and new product launches, particularly the SKIII series [2] - The company's market position is strengthened by its ability to maintain gross margins above 34% despite industry competition [3] - Yizumi's financial health is improving, with the debt-to-asset ratio expected to decrease from 50.80% in 2024 to 47.70% by 2026 [6]