KDL(002850) 东吴证券·2024-10-29 11:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 8.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, up 28% year-on-year [2][3] - The revenue from lithium battery structural components was impacted by price reductions, but overseas operations are gradually ramping up, with expectations for continued revenue growth in Q4 2024 [3][4] - Cost control measures have effectively mitigated the impact of price declines, maintaining stable profitability, with a projected Q4 profit level above 10% [4] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 12.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.89%, and net profit is expected to be 1.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.93% [1][5] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.42 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 times [5] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 23.2% and a net profit margin of 11.8% in Q3 2024, with slight year-on-year changes [2][4] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from increased demand in Q4 due to trade-in programs and energy storage needs, projecting a revenue increase for the full year [3] Cost Management - The company has effectively managed costs, with operating expenses increasing only 2% year-on-year, reflecting strong cost control capabilities [4] - The report notes a decrease in inventory levels by 22.5% compared to the previous quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency [4]