NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-29 12:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum (600219) with a target price of 4.84 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 14% from the current price of 4.24 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The increase in alumina prices supports the company's performance growth, with a 37.49% year-on-year increase in domestic alumina prices and a 48.96% increase in overseas prices [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 24.226 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, and a net profit of 3.49 billion CNY, up 62.94% year-on-year [1][2]. - Management and sales expenses have decreased, showcasing effective management efficiency, while R&D expenses have increased, reflecting a commitment to innovation [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 242.26 billion CNY and a net profit of 34.9 billion CNY, with the third quarter alone contributing 85.59 billion CNY in revenue and 13.01 billion CNY in net profit [1]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 48.19 billion CNY, 51.65 billion CNY, and 54.18 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 38.7%, 7.2%, and 4.9% respectively [2][3]. - The company maintains a cash dividend payout ratio of 26.77% for the year, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.40 CNY per share [1][2]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The alumina market remains in a high-demand phase, with the company benefiting from its 2 million tons alumina project in Indonesia, which is currently operating at full capacity [2]. - The company is also expanding its operations with new projects, including an additional 2 million tons alumina project and a 250,000 tons electrolytic aluminum project, which are expected to contribute to future growth [2].