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中金岭南:铅锌价格贡献业绩,上游资源端再发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 45.688 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 799 million yuan, an increase of 11.66% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in lead and zinc prices contributed to a 20% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3 2024, with the average zinc price at 25,300 yuan/ton and lead at 16,500 yuan/ton [2]. - The company secured exploration rights for a multi-metal mine in Guangdong, enhancing its resource reserves and ensuring supply for lead, zinc, and copper [2]. - Ongoing expansion projects in lead-zinc and copper mining are expected to increase production capacity, with significant investments planned [2]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its new materials processing segment and rare metal recycling, which is anticipated to contribute to new growth points [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 258 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.89% but a year-on-year increase of 46.62% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.39%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.77 percentage points [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 70.704 billion yuan, 74.729 billion yuan, and 74.729 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.031 billion yuan, 1.198 billion yuan, and 1.203 billion yuan [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.276 yuan for 2024, 0.320 yuan for 2025, and 0.322 yuan for 2026 [3][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its upstream resource capabilities through exploration and expansion projects, which are expected to provide a buffer against market fluctuations [2]. - The acquisition of a precision manufacturing company is part of the strategy to develop the new materials processing sector, focusing on rare metal recovery [2].