DTCIC(601001) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 13:38Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][10][12] Core Views - The company continues its stable operations, with revenue and profit margins showing resilience despite slight declines in year-on-year figures. The increase in coal prices has positively impacted profitability [1][7][10] - The company is backed by China's second-largest coal production group, indicating significant potential for asset injection in the future [10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 3.86 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year but up 8.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The company's raw coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.79 million tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while commodity coal sales were 22.07 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, raw coal production was 8.87 million tons, up 5.4% year-on-year and 4.6% quarter-on-quarter, with commodity coal sales at 7.62 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year but up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][6][10] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2024 was 494 yuan per ton, remaining stable year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 262 yuan, a decrease of 1.6 yuan year-on-year. The gross profit per ton was 232 yuan, an increase of 1.6 yuan year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the selling price was 492 yuan per ton, up 17.5 yuan year-on-year and 10.6 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7][10] Profitability Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 48.0% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 25.8%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [1][7][10] - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 15.11 billion, 15.17 billion, and 15.24 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.91 billion, 2.93 billion, and 2.95 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 9.2, 9.1, and 9.1 [10][12]