Anjoy food(603345) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 13:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 4.63% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 11.077 billion yuan, a 7.84% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [1][4] - The company is experiencing good growth in its dish products, with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024, while other product categories like rice and noodle products saw declines [1][4] - The company is expanding its new retail channel, achieving a 96% year-on-year revenue growth in this segment [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a 4.63% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [1][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased to 19.9%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines [5] - The company expects improved sales performance in Q4 2024, driven by early stocking for the upcoming Spring Festival and the seasonal demand for hot pot products [5][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.192 billion, 16.393 billion, and 17.532 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.2%, 7.9%, and 7.0% [7][8] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 1.458 billion, 1.624 billion, and 1.751 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.4% in 2024, followed by increases of 11.4% and 7.8% in 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.97, 5.54, and 5.97 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.5, 16.6, and 15.4 [7][8]