HLGF(600346) 东海证券·2024-10-29 13:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased slightly by 2.71% YoY to 177.857 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.45% YoY to 5.105 billion yuan [7] - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.087 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 59.01% YoY and 42.14% QoQ, below market expectations [7] - Crude oil price fluctuations impacted product spreads and inventory valuation, with Brent crude futures averaging $78.82/barrel in Q3 2024, down 7.30% QoQ and 8.26% YoY [8] - The company is building a second growth engine through its "Optimize, Extend, and Complement the Chain" strategy, with key projects expected to be fully operational in H2 2024 [9] - The company has maintained strong cash flow returns, with monetary funds reaching 27.692 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [9] - The company is actively promoting overseas cooperation, signing a strategic agreement with Saudi Aramco in September 2024 [10] Financial Performance - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts EPS of 1.01 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.80 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.88x, 9.31x, and 7.80x based on the closing price on October 29, 2024 [10] - The company's revenue growth rate is expected to be 2.43% in 2024, 6.35% in 2025, and 4.53% in 2026 [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 2.93% in 2024, 48.98% in 2025, and 19.37% in 2026 [12] - The company's ROE is forecasted to be 10.99% in 2024, 14.77% in 2025, and 15.79% in 2026 [12] Industry and Market Performance - The company's stock price underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date decline of 29% as of October 2024 [5] - The company's P/B ratio stands at 1.61x, with a weighted ROE of 8.44% [4] - The stock's 12-month high and low prices were 17.23 yuan and 11.11 yuan respectively [4]