Inovance(300124) 东吴证券·2024-10-29 13:50Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The industrial control sector has entered a bottoming phase, while the new energy vehicle (NEV) business continues to exceed expectations [1] - Q3 revenue increased by 20% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 1% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit decreased by 10% YoY, meeting market expectations [2] - The gross margin for Q1-3 2024 was 31.02%, down 4.8 percentage points YoY, with Q3 gross margin at 29.7%, down 5.3 percentage points YoY [2] - The NEV business is expected to achieve a 70% YoY revenue growth in 2024, with a net profit margin of over 6% [4] Business Segments General Automation - Q1-3 2024 revenue was approximately 10.9 billion yuan, up 4% YoY, with Q3 revenue down 7% YoY [3] - The OEM market is expected to have bottomed out, with Q4 orders projected to recover to 10-15% YoY growth [3] - Market share for inverters, servos, and small PLCs in Q3 2024 was 19.6%, 28.5%, and 13.9%, respectively, with YoY changes of +1.8, -1.2, and -1.2 percentage points [3] New Energy Vehicles - Q1-3 2024 revenue was approximately 10.4 billion yuan, up 96% YoY, with Q3 revenue up 90% YoY [4] - The NEV business is expected to achieve 150-160 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a net profit margin of over 6% [4] - Key growth drivers include new customers (e.g., Xiaomi), new models (e.g., GAC), and new solutions (e.g., hybrid systems) [4] Elevator Business - Q1-3 2024 revenue was approximately 3.6 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, with Q3 revenue down 12% YoY [4] - The business is expected to stabilize with the help of government policies and overseas market penetration, with full-year revenue projected to decline by 5-0% YoY [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 37.56 billion yuan, 46.07 billion yuan, and 54.59 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 23.47%, 22.64%, and 18.49% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 5.03 billion yuan, 6.01 billion yuan, and 7.18 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 6.04%, 19.56%, and 19.39% [1] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 1.88 yuan, 2.24 yuan, and 2.68 yuan, respectively [1] Valuation - The target price is set at 78.4 yuan, based on a 35x PE multiple for 2025E [5] - The current PE ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 30.55x, 25.56x, and 21.41x, respectively [1]