CMES(601872) 华创证券·2024-10-29 15:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.52 yuan, implying a 26% upside potential from the current price [1][2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, down 4% YoY, mainly due to foreign exchange losses [1] - The report is optimistic about the upward cycle of the oil shipping industry, citing strong supply constraints and risk asset premium attributes [2] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 222-443 million yuan to maintain its value, with the repurchased shares to be canceled [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 6.06 billion yuan, up 0.5% YoY, while the first three quarters' revenue reached 19.3 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 24.4%, up 1.7 percentage points YoY, with the first three quarters' gross margin at 26.5%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million yuan, down 11.7% YoY, while the first three quarters' net profit was 3.37 billion yuan, down 10.4% YoY [1] Business Segment Analysis - In Q3 2024, the bulk shipping segment saw a 22.7% YoY increase in revenue, while the oil shipping segment revenue decreased by 5% YoY [1] - The bulk shipping segment's Q3 2024 net profit surged 75.4% YoY, while the oil shipping segment's net profit dropped 27.8% YoY [1] - The average VLCC-TCE rate in Q3 2024 was $31,000 per day, down 7.6% YoY, while the BDI index averaged 1,871 points, up 56.7% YoY [1] Industry Outlook - The VLCC order book remains at historically low levels, with only 7.98% of total capacity on order, supporting a rise in freight rates [2] - Seasonal demand recovery, the issuance of the third batch of refined oil export quotas, and OPEC+'s expected production increase in December are expected to drive freight rates higher [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the 2024-2026 net profit forecasts to 4.9 billion, 6.94 billion, and 7.89 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 0.85, and 0.97 yuan [2] - The target market capitalization is 69.5 billion yuan, based on a 10x PE for the 2025 cycle, with a target price of 8.52 yuan [2]