KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-29 15:39Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The overall operation is stable, and performance meets expectations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] - The company aims to achieve its annual targets, with steady performance in the first three quarters [2] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in the first three quarters reached 101.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [3] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to a slow recovery in liquor consumption [2] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for the first three quarters was 123.12 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 191.3 billion yuan, up 15.6% [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 91.0%, primarily due to a decline in the product mix of series liquor [5] - The net profit margin for Q3 decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 51.1% [5] Sales Channels - Direct sales and wholesale agency revenues for the first three quarters were 52 billion yuan and 68.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12.5% and 21.0% [4] - The growth in direct sales is attributed to dealers increasingly sourcing non-standard products from direct stores, although the direct sales channel faces certain pressures [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 174.94 billion yuan, 191.63 billion yuan, and 214.37 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 9.5%, and 11.9% [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 85.68 billion yuan, 96.70 billion yuan, and 110.27 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 12.9%, and 14.0% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 68.21 yuan, 76.98 yuan, and 87.78 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.9, 20.3, and 17.8 [6]