宝立食品：2024年三季报点评：业绩符合预期，长期成长无虞

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Baoli Food (603170) with a target price of 15.84, up from the previous forecast of 14.36 [4][7]. Core Views - The performance of Baoli Food meets expectations, with significant improvement in sales of its "Kongke" product line. The company is expected to achieve excess returns driven by the recovery in dining demand and expansion in product categories and channels [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, Baoli Food reported revenue of 1.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 173 million, a decrease of 28.01%. The single-quarter revenue for Q3 was 657 million, up 4.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 65 million, down 13.45% year-on-year [7]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 shows that the "Kongke" product line and light cooking solutions saw revenue growth of 0.7% and 9.64% respectively, while beverage and dessert ingredients experienced a decline of 5.69% due to weak dining demand [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 31.28%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts for the "Kongke" products. The net profit margin was 9.9%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to accelerate its market share in the Western-style dining supply chain, supported by the resolution of production capacity constraints and enhanced R&D capabilities. The "Kongke" brand is anticipated to benefit from the trend towards healthier eating [7]. - The report highlights that the company added 51 new distributors in Q3 2024, indicating a successful expansion into new channels such as offline group purchases and convenience stores [7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.58, 0.72, and 0.89 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23%, +26%, and +23% [7]. - The estimated revenue for 2024 is 2.586 billion, with a growth rate of 9.2%, and net profit is projected at 231 million, a decrease of 23.3% [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 22X PE ratio for 2025 based on comparisons with similar companies, leading to an upward revision of the target price to 15.84 [7]. - The current market capitalization of Baoli Food is 5.224 billion, with a price-to-book ratio of 4.0 [5][6].