Shanghai Jahwa(600315) 东吴证券·2024-10-29 17:07Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing strategic transformation, with performance under pressure during the reform period [1] - The company is a domestic multi-brand daily chemical leader, and after a leadership change in May 2024, it has deepened organizational reforms and strengthened brand building [5] - The company is focusing on core brands, brand building, online channels, and efficiency, with expected improvements in operational efficiency after the strategic transformation and brand renewal [5] Financial Performance - 2024Q1-3 revenue: 4.477 billion yuan (-12.07% YoY), net profit attributable to the parent company: 163 million yuan (-58.72% YoY), adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company: 120 million yuan (-59.74% YoY) [2] - 2024Q3 revenue: 1.156 billion yuan (-20.93% YoY), net profit attributable to the parent company: -75 million yuan (-180.85% YoY), adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company: -115 million yuan (-421.81% YoY) [2] - 2024Q1-3 gross margin: 59.41% (+0.11pct YoY), net profit margin: 3.63% (-4.11pct YoY) [4] - 2024Q3 gross margin: 54.49% (-3.24pct YoY), net profit margin: -6.51% (-12.89pct YoY) [4] Business Operations - Increased brand marketing investment and improved online channel operation capabilities [3] - Domestic/overseas revenue in 24Q3: 779 million yuan/374 million yuan, accounting for 68%/32% respectively [3] - Personal care/cosmetics/innovation/overseas revenue in 24Q3: 532 million yuan/95 million yuan/151 million yuan/374 million yuan, accounting for 46%/8%/13%/32% respectively [3] - Strengthened self-broadcasting capabilities, with significant improvement in daily viewing data of Yuzhi's official flagship store in October [3] Financial Forecast - 2024-26 net profit attributable to the parent company forecast adjusted to 300 million yuan/480 million yuan/590 million yuan, with YoY growth of -39%/+58%/+22% respectively [5] - 2024-26 EPS forecast: 0.45 yuan/0.72 yuan/0.87 yuan [5] - 2024-26 PE ratio: 39X/25X/20X [5] Market Data - Closing price: 17.65 yuan [7] - 52-week low/high: 13.67 yuan/23.94 yuan [7] - Price-to-book ratio: 1.54 [7] - Market capitalization: 11.865 billion yuan [7] Financial Ratios - 2024Q1-3 operating cash flow: 269 million yuan (+28.6% YoY) [4] - Inventory as of 24Q3: 755 million yuan (-21.91% YoY), inventory turnover days: 114 days (-9 days) [4] - 2024Q1-3 period expense ratio: 56.71% (+1.72pct YoY), 2024Q3 period expense ratio: 65.67% (+8.08pct YoY) [4]