PPF(300258) 华创证券·2024-10-29 17:08Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Jingzhuan Technology (300258) to "Recommend" with a target price of 10.1 yuan, compared to the current price of 8.93 yuan [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 financial performance was in line with expectations, with a single-quarter revenue of 460 million yuan, down 18% year-on-year and 8.6% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Gross margin was 23.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in high-margin export business revenue [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 23 million yuan, down 62% year-on-year and 52% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 4.9%, down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year and 4.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is transitioning from differential gears to differential assemblies and diversified precision forgings, which is expected to support growth over the next 5-10 years [2] - The company is planning a factory in Thailand to expand its global presence, with production expected to start in Q1 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 2,217 million yuan, 2,481 million yuan, and 2,836 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 11.9%, and 14.3% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 168 million yuan, 194 million yuan, and 232 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -29.3%, 15.7%, and 19.7% respectively [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.35 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, with P/E ratios of 26x, 22x, and 19x respectively [3] Company Overview - Jingzhuan Technology is a company in the automotive parts industry, with a total market capitalization of 4.384 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 4.211 billion yuan [4] - The company has a total share capital of 481.7772 million shares, with 462.7319 million shares listed and circulating [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is 43.71%, and its net asset per share is 7.51 yuan [4] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, Jingzhuan Technology's stock price has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 44% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 23% [5]