YUTO TECH.(SZ:002831) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-29 21:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance remains robust despite external pressures, with steady global capacity expansion and orderly business boundary growth, leading to counter-cyclical revenue growth [3]. - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2024-2026 revised to 1.78, 2.06, and 2.37 yuan respectively, and the target price raised to 39.44 yuan based on a 22.2x PE ratio for 2024 [3]. - The company is experiencing stable revenue growth, with expected growth rates of around 10% for key categories such as consumer electronics, tobacco, and alcohol packaging, while eco-friendly products are expected to grow significantly above the company average [3]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are being implemented, with Q3 2024 gross and net profit margins at 27.6% and 13.0%, respectively, showing a slight year-on-year decrease but a quarter-on-quarter improvement [3]. - The company is expanding its international customer base, with production facilities established in over 10 countries, and aims to increase overseas capacity from approximately 20% to over 40% [3]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 870 million yuan in 2023, a payout ratio of 60.3%, and a projected dividend yield of around 5% for 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 17.887 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and net profit expected to reach 1.652 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.9% increase [9]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to grow from 22.186 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.667 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 9.7% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 13.5% [9].