轻工制造 行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 20 日 Q2 出口板块个股业绩分化；内需 整体仍存盈利压力，两轮车、黄金 珠宝表现较好 看好 ——轻工造纸行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 (8621)23297818× weiyc@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 1）出口：25Q2 业绩存在分化，抗风险突出个股业绩增长稳健。25Q2 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3519.65 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.27% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 14809.22 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 46 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Siyuan Electric (002028) with a deviation rate of 7.62% - Huaming Equipment (002270) with a deviation rate of 2.75% - Tongyi Co., Ltd. (300538) with a deviation rate of 2.63% [1] Deviation Rate Rankings - The top stocks with the highest deviation rates from the annual line include: - Siyuan Electric: 10.00% increase, latest price 76.99 yuan, deviation rate 7.62% - Huaming Equipment: 3.25% increase, latest price 16.85 yuan, deviation rate 2.75% - Tongyi Co., Ltd.: 2.63% increase, latest price 16.02 yuan, deviation rate 2.63% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Daqin Railway and *ST Haiyuan with minimal deviation rates [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3525.40 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 987.43 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 41 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Siyuan Electric (002028) with a deviation rate of 7.62% - Tongyi Co., Ltd. (300538) with a deviation rate of 2.51% - Ruisheng Technology (688090) with a deviation rate of 2.05% [1] Stocks with Significant Deviation Rates - The stocks with the highest deviation rates from the annual line include: - Siyuan Electric: 10.00% increase, trading at 76.99 yuan - Tongyi Co., Ltd.: 2.50% increase, trading at 16.00 yuan - Ruisheng Technology: 3.24% increase, trading at 35.10 yuan [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Other stocks that have just crossed the annual line with smaller deviation rates include: - Qianjiang Motorcycle, Jiuquan Technology, and Huadian International, which have just reached the annual line [1]

Market Overview - As of 10:29 AM today, the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 3526.79 points, above the six-month moving average, with a change of 0.47% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 737.265 billion yuan [1] Stocks Performance - A total of 94 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] - The stocks with the highest deviation rates include: - 欧陆通 (Eurasiatic) with a deviation rate of 5.86%, closing at 128.20 yuan after a 6.85% increase [1] - 思源电气 (Siyuan Electric) with a deviation rate of 5.07%, closing at 76.99 yuan after a 10.00% increase [1] - 中国中车 (CRRC) with a deviation rate of 4.75%, closing at 7.60 yuan after a 5.41% increase [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - 中纺标 (Zhongfang Biao) with a deviation rate of 3.78%, closing at 48.83 yuan after a 7.04% increase [1] - 天华新能源 (Tianhua New Energy) with a deviation rate of 3.69%, closing at 20.63 yuan after a 7.84% increase [1] - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the six-month line include 多利科技 (Doli Technology), 蓝宇股份 (Lanyu Co.), and 世嘉科技 (Shijia Technology) [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 新消费需求多点迸发，竞争格局重构进行时 轻工消费2025年夏季策略 证券分析师：屠亦婷 A0230512080003 黄莎 A0230522010002 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 研究支持：张海涛 A0230524080003 张文静 A0230524120005 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 2025.07.11 新消费需求多点迸发，竞争格局重构进行时 新消费 国内人口代际变化 Z世代消费主力军 技术驱动 产品从0到1验证 海外需求变化 供应链 全球化 机遇 国际客户供应链全 球化趋势确认 高股息 行业格局成熟 资本开支放缓 国货品牌崛起 情感、悦己需求 AI硬件 AI软件 电子烟（监管政策） 品类渗透率提升 保温杯、家居等 消费电子包装 包装 家居 国补以旧换新 国货个护：百亚股份、豪悦护理、登康口腔 IP潮玩：布鲁可、晨光股份、 广博股份、创源股份 黄金珠宝： 潮宏基 宠物用品：天元宠物、 朝云集团、依依股份、 源飞宠物 两轮车：雅迪控股、爱玛科 技、九号公司 AI床垫：慕 思股份、喜 临门 家居：顾家家居、公 牛集团 AI眼镜：康耐特光学、明月 镜片、英派斯 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

证券代码： 002831 证券简称：裕同科技 公告编号：2025-030 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司 关于子公司香港裕同参与认购投资基金份额的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、本次对外投资概述 为助力企业节能减排，实现可持续发展的目标，深圳市裕同包装科技股份有 限公司（以下简称"公司"）之全资子公司香港裕同印刷有限公司（以下简称"香 港裕同"）拟参与投资 China Renewable Power Infrastructure LPF（以下简称"CRPIF 基金"）并于 2025 年 6 月 23 日签署完成有关认购协议，CRPIF 基金主要围绕光 伏、风电等新能源基础设施及配套储能项目进行投资布局，基金目标规模不超过 6.5 亿美元。公司子公司香港裕同将出资不超过 1,200 万美元认购基金份额，本 次投资资金来源于自有资金。 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司信息披露 指引第 5 号—交易与关联交易》及《公司章程》等相关规定，本次对外投资事项 无需提交公司董事会、股东大会审议批准。 本次对外投资事项不构成关联 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Technology's wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong Kong Yutong, plans to invest up to $12 million in the China Renewable Power Infrastructure LPF fund, which focuses on renewable energy infrastructure projects such as solar and wind power [1] Group 1 - The investment amount by the subsidiary is capped at $12 million [1] - The fund primarily targets investments in solar, wind, and related energy storage projects [1] - The target size of the fund is set at a maximum of $650 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - The light industry exports continued to weaken in May, while U.S. furniture retail sales showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Domestic furniture retail sales in China rose by 25.6% year-on-year, supported by the progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has reached 54% [2][3][18]. - Meta has launched a new AI sports eyewear product, Oakley Meta HSTN, which is expected to catalyze industry innovation [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the recovery of the home furnishing sector as the "old-for-new" subsidy program is implemented in key cities, improving customer traffic and order data. It recommends leading companies in customized home furnishing, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as Bull Group and Good Wife for their growth potential in smart home products [16][17]. 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - In May, light industry exports fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to April. The U.S. furniture retail sector remains robust, reflecting strong demand [2][19]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has driven significant retail sales growth in furniture, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales supported by 1.75 billion subsidies issued [3][25]. - The launch of Meta's AI eyewear is seen as a potential catalyst for innovation in the industry [4][30]. 3. Market Review - The light industry sector experienced a decline of 3.06% last week, underperforming the broader market [31]. 4. Key Data Tracking - In May, furniture retail sales in China reached 170 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year, while building materials sales fell by 2.9% [34]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic prices for various paper products, with significant drops in packaging paper prices [42][50]. - Real estate data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year decline in property transaction volumes in 30 major cities [58]. - The furniture export value in May was 5.64 billion USD, down 9.4% year-on-year, while paper and paper products exports also saw a slight decline [67].

证券代码： 002831 证券简称：裕同科技 公告编号：2025-029 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司 关于公司提供担保进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 深圳市裕同包装科技股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 25 日召开的第五届董事会第十二次会议，于 2025 年 5 月 20 日召 开 2024 年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于 2025 年度银行授信及调整对子公司 担保额度及期限的议案》，同意公司提供担保的总额度为 677,009.50 万元（折合 人民币,含资产池业务产生的担保，以及子公司之间的担保）。 根据经营发展需要，2025 年 6 月 11 日，公司与广发银行股份有限公司深圳 分行签署《保证合同》[合同编号：（2025）深银授额字第 000320 号-担保 01]，为 公司子公司深圳市君信供应链管理有限公司（以下简称"深圳君信供应链"）融 资授信提供担保。现将具体进展情况公告如下： （一）本次新增担保情况： | | | | | 担保 | 被担保方资 | 2025 年度 ...