Proya(603605) 华创证券·2024-10-29 23:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Proya (603605) [1] Core Views - Proya achieved revenue of 6.966 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 999 million yuan, up 34% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue was 1.965 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 298 million yuan, also up 21% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin improved to 70.71% in Q3, up 1.11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.95 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Sales expense ratio was 45.4% in Q3, down 1.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but up 2.78 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The gross-to-sales margin difference was 25.31% in Q3, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - Proya's main brand grew by 34% on Taotian and Douyin platforms in Q3 [1] - The brand ranked first in both the Tmall Fast-Moving Consumer Goods and Beauty categories during the Double 11 pre-sale period [1] - The Red Ruby series, Source Power series, and Double Resistance series continued to grow, with the Source Power 3.0 essence and Optical series launching new products [1] - The makeup brand Caitang grew by 32% on Taobao and Douyin platforms in Q3 [1] - The hair care category is expected to grow by 40-45%, with brands like Off&Relax and Jingshi showing strong potential [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 11.578 billion yuan, 14.260 billion yuan, and 16.944 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, 1.911 billion yuan, and 2.244 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The target market capitalization is 47.8 billion yuan, based on a 1x PEG ratio for 2025 net profit [1] Market Performance - Proya's online sales grew by 38% in Q1-Q3 2024, with direct sales up over 35% and distribution channels up over 45% [1] - Offline sales declined by 18% year-on-year due to base effects and channel adjustments [1] Financial Indicators - Revenue for 2023A was 8.905 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 1.194 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46.1% [2] - EPS for 2023A was 3.01 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32 [2] - Revenue growth rates for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected at 30.0%, 23.2%, and 18.8%, respectively [2] - Net profit growth rates for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are expected to be 27.5%, 25.6%, and 17.4%, respectively [2]