CNNP(SH:601985) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-29 23:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for China Nuclear Power (601985) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 is in line with expectations, with revenue of 56.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [7][8] - The decline in performance is attributed to a drop in both volume and price in the electricity business, alongside increased expenses [7] - The company has ample construction and reserve capacity, indicating potential long-term value [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 19.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 46.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's financial expense ratio increased to 9.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company has 18 units under construction or approved for construction, with a total capacity of 20.6 GW [7] - The Jiangsu Xuwei Phase I project has received approval for the construction of two Hualong One reactors and one high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, totaling 3.1 GW [7] - The company expects to commission five units in 2027, marking a peak in operational capacity [7] Earnings Forecast - The EPS estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 0.58, 0.62, and 0.66 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.62, 0.67, and 0.72 yuan [7] - The target price has been revised down to 12.40 yuan from 12.73 yuan, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [7]