JZYY(SH:600750) Great Wall Securities·2024-10-30 00:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical [1] Core Views - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical's Q3 2024 results show stable profit growth, but the health business needs recovery. The company achieved a revenue of 2.972 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 634 million yuan, an increase of 7.09% year-on-year [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 3.885 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 35.2%. In 2023, revenue is projected at 4.390 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 13.0%. However, a decline of 2.6% is expected in 2024, with revenues estimated at 4.275 billion yuan. The company anticipates a recovery in 2025 and 2026, with revenues of 4.756 billion yuan and 5.425 billion yuan, respectively, representing growth rates of 11.3% and 14.1% [1][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 598 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18.3%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 708 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18.4%. The company forecasts net profits of 795 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1.038 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 12.3%, 13.4%, and 15.1% [1][5] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 2.97 percentage points to 63.94%. The gross margins for OTC, prescription drugs, and health products were 72.32%, 43.29%, and 23.62%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.53, -15.39, and -25.32 percentage points [3] Business Segment Performance - The OTC segment generated revenue of 2.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, accounting for 78.57% of total revenue, which is an increase of 6.25 percentage points. The prescription drug segment saw revenue of 365 million yuan, a decline of 25.10%, primarily due to changes in product structure from unsuccessful bids in centralized procurement. The health business generated revenue of 249 million yuan, a significant decrease of 45.73% due to slower expansion and product adjustments [2][3] Future Outlook - The report projects revenues of 4.275 billion yuan, 4.756 billion yuan, and 5.425 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 795 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1.038 billion yuan. The expected P/E ratios for these years are 17.8, 15.7, and 13.7, respectively [3][5]