Changhong Meiling (000521) 中泰证券·2024-10-30 00:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Meiling is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the slowdown in the growth of the self-owned brand has impacted profits, with expectations for a recovery in Q4 driven by the old-for-new policy [1] - Q3 revenue reached 7.8 billion yuan, an increase of 23%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, down 18% [1] - The report highlights that the revenue met market expectations, but the slowdown in self-owned brand growth and rising raw material prices led to profits falling slightly below expectations [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 20,215 - 2023A: 24,248 - 2024E: 29,084 - 2025E: 32,184 - 2026E: 35,199 [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 245 - 2023A: 741 - 2024E: 748 - 2025E: 856 - 2026E: 990 [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2022A: 0.24 - 2023A: 0.72 - 2024E: 0.73 - 2025E: 0.83 - 2026E: 0.96 [1] Business Segment Analysis - The report notes that the OEM business (mainly Xiaomi) is experiencing high growth, while the self-owned brand is under pressure [1] - In the air conditioning segment, external sales are expected to drive growth, while the self-owned brand is anticipated to decline [1] - For the refrigerator and washing machine segments, external sales are performing well, but internal brand performance is dragging down overall growth [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the old-for-new policy will significantly boost performance in Q4, particularly for the Meiling refrigerator brand [1] - Revenue forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with expectations for continued strong growth in external sales [1] - The report projects net profit for 2024 to be 748 million yuan, with a slight increase in subsequent years [1]