舍得酒业：压力持续释放，保持定力等待反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.19 billion yuan, down 30.92%, with a net profit of 78.04 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to Q2 [1]. - The company is facing significant short-term pressure due to weak demand in the white liquor market, with a focus on a "control volume and support price" strategy and enhanced marketing efforts to reduce inventory [1]. - Despite the overall growth being under pressure, certain high-end products have shown strong performance, with sales of the high-end strategic product "藏品舍得 10 年" increasing by 384% year-on-year during the National Day holiday [1]. - The company is actively maintaining investor interests by announcing a share repurchase plan of 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future development [1]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 3.50 billion yuan (down 15.70%) and ordinary liquor revenue at 537 million yuan (down 22.53%) [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.67%, down 10.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.28 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 919 million yuan, 879 million yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates [2][11]. Regional Performance - Revenue from outside the province was 2.78 billion yuan, down 19.88%, while revenue from within the province was 1.26 billion yuan, down 8.61% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1].