YTCO(600066)2024-10-30 00:41Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance and dividend distribution exceeded expectations, with a net profit of 760 million yuan, up 30.7% YoY, and a proposed cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share [2] - The company's export sales declined in Q3 2024, but the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle increased by 2.0% YoY to 720,000 yuan, driven by optimized export regional structure, particularly the increased share of higher ASP European markets and new energy vehicles [3] - The adjusted gross margin in Q3 2024 was 24.0%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY, reflecting optimized sales structure, while the adjusted operating expense ratio decreased to 14.3%, showing good economies of scale [4] - The company's net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 9.8%, up 2.4 percentage points YoY, outperforming the gross margin [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 34.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 49.9 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.49% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 3.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.0 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.68% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.50 yuan in 2024 to 2.24 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 17.14x to 11.46x [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.7 billion yuan, down 1.3% YoY, and net profit of 760 million yuan, up 30.7% YoY [2] - The company's adjusted gross margin in Q3 2024 was 24.0%, with an operating expense ratio of 14.3% [4] - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 9.8%, up 2.4 percentage points YoY [4] Export and ASP Analysis - The ASP per vehicle in Q3 2024 was 720,000 yuan, up 2.0% YoY, driven by increased share of higher ASP European markets and new energy vehicles [3] - The ASP for large and medium-sized buses exported from Henan in the first three quarters of 2024 was 940,000 yuan, up from 890,000 yuan in 2023, while the ASP for new energy vehicle exports was 2.34 million yuan, up from 2.04 million yuan in 2023 [3] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 17.14x in 2024 to 11.46x in 2026 [1] - The ROE is projected to increase from 23.82% in 2024 to 30.34% in 2026 [11] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to fluctuate between 57.70% and 66.14% from 2024 to 2026 [10] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase from 6.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 13.9 billion yuan in 2026 [11] - Capital expenditure is expected to remain stable, ranging from 544 million yuan to 574 million yuan from 2024 to 2026 [11]