舍得酒业：业绩暂时承压，静待基本面修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 71.76 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings for 2024 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million CNY, down 48.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.19 billion CNY, down 30.9%, and net profit was 80 million CNY, down 79.2% [1]. - The decline in industry prosperity has put pressure on the company's sales. For the first three quarters of 2024, mid-to-high-end liquor generated 3.50 billion CNY in revenue (down 16% year-on-year), while low-end liquor brought in 540 million CNY (down 23% year-on-year). In Q3, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 900 million CNY (down 36% year-on-year) [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 67.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix. The sales and management expense ratios increased to 21.4% and 9.8%, respectively, reflecting a rise in expenses due to a lower revenue base [1]. - The company's key products, Shezhidao and T68, are expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies, as they are positioned below 300 CNY, which may support performance amid declining consumer spending [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 2.99 CNY, 3.31 CNY, and 3.80 CNY, respectively, revised down from previous estimates of 3.60 CNY, 3.81 CNY, and 4.36 CNY [2][8]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 5.934 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 67.9% in 2025 and slightly improve to 68.3% in 2026 [4][11].