XfmGroup(SH:603225) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-30 01:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Recommendation" rating to the company, reflecting a downward adjustment due to the current weakness in the filament market [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.197 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.31%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.91% to 746 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.91%, but the net profit fell significantly by 65.41% year-on-year to 141 million yuan [1][4]. - The main products showed high growth in production and sales during the first three quarters of 2024, with POY production/sales increasing by 14.8%/15.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY remained stable, but the price spread for POY narrowed by 6.0% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit of 141 million yuan, down 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 98 million yuan, down 73.41% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 952 million yuan, 1.244 billion yuan, and 1.488 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.82, and 0.98 yuan per share [4][5]. Production and Sales - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced and sold 3.862 million tons and 3.806 million tons of POY, respectively, marking increases of 14.8% and 15.2% year-on-year [2]. - The Q3 2024 production and sales figures for POY were 1.271 million tons and 1.479 million tons, with sales increasing by 18.8% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Price Trends - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in Q3 2024 were 6,690 yuan, 7,568 yuan, and 8,699 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.2%, 2.7%, and 1.3% respectively [4]. - The average selling prices for PTA and MEG were 5,067 yuan and 4,010 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of -1.8% and +11.7% respectively [3].