东鹏饮料：新品放量，利润再超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 4.68 billion yuan (up 47.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 980 million yuan (up 78.4%), exceeding market expectations [1] - The main business and new products both exceeded expectations, with the main business maintaining high growth and new product revenue significantly increasing [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 15.91 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.2% [4] Revenue Analysis - The main business maintained high growth with Q3 special drink revenue accounting for 78%, up 28% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth varied by region, with significant increases in Guangdong and Guangxi due to effective freezer deployment and inventory adjustments [1] - New product revenue accounted for 22% in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 218%, and the "Water" product contributing 72% of new product revenue [1] Profit Analysis - Q3 gross margin increased by 4.3 percentage points to 45.8%, primarily due to lower raw material costs and economies of scale [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 increased by 3.6 percentage points to 20.9% [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.20 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 57.1% [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.91 billion yuan, 20.38 billion yuan, and 25.68 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.20 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 5.29 billion yuan [4][5] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 36, 28, and 22 times [2]