Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) Haitong Securities·2024-10-30 01:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2024, achieving a revenue of 6.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.72%, with a total revenue of 20.189 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting an 18.67% year-on-year growth. This growth is primarily driven by the continued expansion of innovative drug products [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was 1.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%, while the net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.620 billion yuan, up 32.98% year-on-year [5] - The company has successfully launched its first innovative drug in the self-immune field, targeting IL-17, and has a total of 17 first-class new drugs approved for sale in China [6] - The company is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth with 9 innovative drugs currently in the application stage and 5 drugs undergoing review for medical insurance negotiations [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.444 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.8%, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 1.01 yuan [5][10] - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 22.820 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.474 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 20.4% [10] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 83.9% in 2024 and 85.4% in 2025 [10] Valuation - The company is valued using the PEG method, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio estimated between 43 to 54 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 43.31 to 54.14 yuan [5] - Comparatively, the average PE ratio for peer companies is around 46.32 times [9] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance of -7.0% over the past month and -11.0% over the past two months, with a 3.3% increase over the last three months compared to the market index [3][4]