Guoxin Securities·2024-10-30 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance is showing signs of recovery, particularly in its retail banking segment, with a positive growth in net profit for the third quarter [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in its wealth management business due to increasing market activity driven by recent policy support [1]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, indicating a solid credit profile [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 252.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while net profit was 113.2 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year [1]. - The annualized ROAA and ROAE were reported at 1.33% and 15.38%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The net interest margin for the third quarter was 1.97%, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 147.3 billion yuan, 153.5 billion yuan, and 165.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.2%, and 7.6% [1][3]. - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.7x, 6.5x, and 6.0x, while the PB ratios are 0.94x, 0.85x, and 0.78x [1][3]. Asset Quality Indicators - The company reported a non-performing loan generation rate of 1.02%, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1 basis point, primarily driven by retail loans [1]. - The provision coverage ratio stands at 432%, indicating a strong buffer against potential credit losses [1][4].