TECON(002100) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-30 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][13]. Core Views - The company has turned profitable in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 566 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year. This improvement is attributed to the steady reduction in breeding costs and the rise in pig prices [2][5]. - The company aims to sell between 3 to 3.5 million pigs in 2024, with a current breeding stock of around 140,000 sows, indicating a stable production capacity [2][5]. - The company has a strong cash reserve of 3.65 billion yuan as of Q3 2024, reflecting a 29% increase from the end of 2023, and a declining debt ratio of 49.89% [2][5]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue is projected to reach 18.684 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease of 1.8% from 2023, followed by growth in subsequent years [1]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 685 million yuan, with an expected EPS of 0.50 yuan, improving to 0.74 yuan in 2025 and 0.57 yuan in 2026 [1][11]. - The EBIT margin is expected to improve from -4.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [1][11]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover to 9.9% in 2024, following a significant loss in 2023 [1][11].