XfmGroup(603225) 华安证券·2024-10-30 01:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.197 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.31%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.91% to 746 million yuan [1] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing significant pressure due to lower-than-expected demand and rising costs, leading to a decline in profitability [1] - The company is gradually ramping up its production capacity, with an expected addition of 400,000 tons in the second half of 2024 [1] - The long-term competitive landscape of the polyester filament industry is becoming more rational, with a high concentration ratio of 81.5% for the top six producers [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.924 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 65.41% [1] - The company’s sales volumes for POY, FDY, DTY, short fibers, and PTA were 1.479 million tons, 388,000 tons, 202,000 tons, 307,000 tons, and 111,000 tons respectively, with significant growth in POY sales [1] - The average prices for POY, FDY, DTY, short fibers, and PTA in Q3 were 6,690.3 yuan, 7,568.2 yuan, 8,698.7 yuan, 6,645.8 yuan, and 4,771.32 yuan per ton, showing a decline in prices across most products [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 972 million yuan, 1.397 billion yuan, and 1.808 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.56, 12.91, and 9.98 [2][3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 61.469 billion yuan in 2024 to 74.568 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% [2][3]