新钢股份：季度盈利回落，产品结构有望改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing potential valuation recovery and improved profitability in the medium to long term [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed a significant decline, with revenue dropping 49.94% YoY to RMB 31.18 billion and a net loss of RMB 579 million, compared to a profit of RMB 476 million in the same period last year [1] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been declining sequentially, with Q3 2024 gross margin at -2.87% and net margin at -5.11%, reflecting industry-wide profit pressure [1] - The company is focusing on its core steel business, particularly high-quality silicon steel and thick plate products, with plans to increase the proportion of high-performance, high-grade products to over 60% and expand total capacity to 2.1 million tons [2] - The controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by purchasing A-shares worth RMB 150-300 million, signaling confidence in the company's future [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 31.18 billion, a 49.94% YoY decrease, with a net loss of RMB 579 million, compared to a profit of RMB 476 million in the same period last year [1] - The company's cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel production and sales volumes for the first three quarters of 2024 were 7.4163 million tons and 7.3847 million tons, respectively, down 9.6% and 6.8% YoY [2] - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 90 million, RMB 540 million, and RMB 940 million, respectively, with a valuation range of RMB 20.2-21.9 billion [3] Industry and Market Context - The steel industry's profits declined by 256% YoY in the first nine months of 2024, aligning with the company's profit trend [1] - The company's stock price has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a significant decline over the past year [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its fourth and fifth phases of high-performance, high-grade electrical steel projects, aiming to optimize its product structure and enhance profitability [2] - The company has largely ceased its trade business to focus on its core steel operations, particularly in high-quality silicon steel and thick plate products [2]