短期业绩承压致板块回调，估值区间再具配置价值 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块下跌 10.03%，表现劣于大盘；其中， 特钢板块下跌 9.18%，长材板块下跌 8.88%，板材板块下跌 10.2 9%；铁矿石板块下跌 10.96%，钢铁耗材板块下跌 12.52%，贸易流 通板块下跌 3.272%。 ➢ 供给情况。截至 3 月 20 日，样本钢企高炉产能利用率 85.5%，周环 比增加 2.61 百分点。截至 3 月 20 日，样本钢企电炉产能利用率 56. 6%，周环比增 ...

短期业绩承压致板块回调，估值区间再具配置价值 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [短期业绩承压致板块回调，估值区间再具配置价值 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cind ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 21 年 月 日 钢铁 地缘的冲击 行情回顾（3.16-3.20）： 行业走势 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 2026-03 钢铁 沪深300 作者 分析师 笃慧 执业证书编号：S0680523090003 邮箱：duhui1@gszq.com 分析师 高亢 执业证书编号：S0680523020001 邮箱：gaokang@gszq.com 相关研究 中信钢铁指数报收1,919.67点，下跌10.03%，跑输沪深300指数7.84pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 29 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场回调幅度较大，商品市场除原油外基本都处于回调之 中。短期美伊地缘冲突仍在持续，如果持续时间过长，能源价格暴涨后会 对世界经济造成冲击，所有的周期机制都可以理解成价格对增长的反制。 当康波进入资源约束阶段，资源价格迅速上升和资本回报的下降叠加在一 起，就会发生经济冲击。经济冲击伴随流动性冲击会对大部分资产造成影 响，同时能源价格冲击的破坏性结果可能会成为美国未 ...

钢铁 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 17 年 月 日 1-2 月数据跟踪：粗钢产量回落，外需保持韧性 根据 Wind 数据，2026 年 1-2 月钢铁行业及前期海关进出口数据汇总如 下： 粗钢产量同比回落，环比大幅增加：2025 年 5 月份到年底钢铁产量统计 数据质量不佳，与钢联统计铁水产量匹配度较低。粗钢统计数据质量下降 的原因可能与 2025 年产量压降压力有关，部分地区统计数据与实际产量 数据分化较大，也对评估 2025 年的钢铁需求造成一定的影响，比如 2026 年 1-2 月份中国钢材表观消费量 20643 万吨，同比回落 0.8%。2026 年 1-2 月钢材日均产量环比 2025 年 12 月增长 0.8%，同时 247 家钢 厂高炉开工率稳定在 85%左右，但与此同时粗钢日均产量数据环比大增 23.6%，环比数据的剧烈波动再次印证我们对之前数据质量的担忧。鉴 于粗钢去年同比基数质量较差，我们用钢材产量增速去耦合实际经济增长 可能更符合实际情况，转型期经济上的波动没有粗钢产量数据"统计波动" 那么剧烈。今年两会政府报告中总量经济依然以稳为主，注意力更加 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating that leading companies are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced profitability in the medium to long term [4][21]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown strong performance in sub-segments such as plate and special steel, with year-to-date increases of 10.37%, 9.31%, and 8.85% for plate, special steel, and pipe segments respectively [4][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated an "Industrial Data Foundation Action" aimed at constructing high-quality industry data sets to empower artificial intelligence applications, with the steel industry identified as a key focus area [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing product structures and highlights the potential for stable high dividends from leading companies such as Baosteel, Shougang, and CITIC Special Steel [21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector has seen a mixed performance with 19 companies rising in stock value, while 57.78% of stocks experienced declines during the week of March 8 to March 15, 2026 [8]. - The top five performers in the steel sector during this week were Jiugang Hongxing, Hainan Mining, Dazhong Mining, Zhongnan Co., and Anyang Steel, with increases of 17.46%, 10.33%, 10.30%, 3.65%, and 3.44% respectively [8][9]. Industry Events - The MIIT's notification on March 10 outlines a plan to establish a collaborative framework among leading companies in the steel sector to enhance data collection and utilization, aiming for breakthroughs in industrial data bottlenecks by the end of 2026 [10][11]. - The initiative includes the creation of a trusted interconnection platform for industry data, which will facilitate the development of high-quality, standardized, and shareable industry data sets [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with optimized product structures and stable high dividends, such as Baosteel, Shougang, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [21]. - It also highlights companies with high technical barriers that can withstand market pressures, suggesting attention to Fangda Special Steel, New Steel, and Jiuli Special Materials [21]. - Additionally, it points to upstream resource companies that may benefit from improved supply dynamics, recommending Baotou Steel, Hainan Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, and Jinling Mining [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [4]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [2]. - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing supply and demand, optimizing product structure, and the necessity for structural reforms in the steel industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Demand is projected to stabilize, with a decrease in the real estate sector's contribution to steel demand becoming less impactful. Growth in steel demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to be steady [4]. - The total social inventory of major steel products reached 14.23 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week-on-week. Steel mill inventories also rose to 5.52 million tons, up by 30,000 tons [9][29]. Profitability - The report notes a rebound in production profits for rebar and hot-rolled steel, with average gross margins for hot-rolled steel increasing by 2 CNY/ton to 46 CNY/ton, and for rebar, the average gross margin rose by 34 CNY/ton to 182 CNY/ton [33][39]. Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with Shanghai rebar prices rising by 60 CNY/ton to 3,260 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled coil prices increasing by 60 CNY/ton to 3,310 CNY/ton [7][39]. - International steel prices have decreased, with U.S. rebar prices dropping by 19 USD/ton to 1,026 USD/ton, and European prices falling by 58 USD/ton to 715 USD/ton [36]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices have rebounded, with the price at Rizhao Port increasing by 20 CNY/ton to 799 CNY/ton, while futures prices rose by 21.5 CNY/ton to 772 CNY/ton [39][46]. - The report indicates an increase in iron ore port inventories, which rose by 700,000 tons to 17.182 million tons [46]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with technological and product structure advantages, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 15 年 月 日 钢铁 治乱交替 行情回顾（3.9-3.13）： 中信钢铁指数报收 2,133.62 点，下跌 1.92%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.11pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 23 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场在地缘摩擦下处于波动状态，商品市场原油价格暴涨 是绝对的明星。在大的历史变局时期中主导国霸权面临追赶国的挑战，在 权力的交替期，世界会进入混乱和秩序之间的悬崖，主导国无力也没有意 愿继续承担世界警察和世界银行的责任，溺水者的自然本能恰恰驱使他尽 其所能地溺死自己，反而会成为秩序的破坏者。20 世纪的历史表明当追赶 国达到工业成熟后可能是一个危险的时代，这个时期世界经济的公共产品 比如稳定的货币、开放的市场以及危机的最后贷款人会瞬间短缺，结果就 是世界保护主义横行，金融危机爆发的概率提高，最终可能使人类进入更 大的战争深渊。历史中一个不完美的秩序，往往也好过没有秩序。在既定 秩序中绝大多数国家会选择搭便车，理性享受稳定红利，规避主导风险。 但问题是当旧船开始下沉，谁来驾驶新船。当领导力出现真空，如 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 15 年 月 日 钢铁 治乱交替 行情回顾（3.9-3.13）： 中信钢铁指数报收 2,133.62 点，下跌 1.92%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.11pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 23 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场在地缘摩擦下处于波动状态，商品市场原油价格暴涨 是绝对的明星。在大的历史变局时期中主导国霸权面临追赶国的挑战，在 权力的交替期，世界会进入混乱和秩序之间的悬崖，主导国无力也没有意 愿继续承担世界警察和世界银行的责任，溺水者的自然本能恰恰驱使他尽 其所能地溺死自己，反而会成为秩序的破坏者。20 世纪的历史表明当追赶 国达到工业成熟后可能是一个危险的时代，这个时期世界经济的公共产品 比如稳定的货币、开放的市场以及危机的最后贷款人会瞬间短缺，结果就 是世界保护主义横行，金融危机爆发的概率提高，最终可能使人类进入更 大的战争深渊。历史中一个不完美的秩序，往往也好过没有秩序。在既定 秩序中绝大多数国家会选择搭便车，理性享受稳定红利，规避主导风险。 但问题是当旧船开始下沉，谁来驾驶新船。当领导力出现真空，如 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating a potential improvement in profitability and a favorable supply-demand balance for leading companies [4][20]. Core Insights - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of the "Regulatory and Leading Enterprises" classification, which aims to optimize the industry structure and enhance competitiveness [4][12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has published a list of 230 enterprises that meet the new regulatory conditions, including 35 leading enterprises, which will benefit from preferential policies and financing opportunities [4][11]. - The report highlights significant price increases in various steel sub-sectors, with notable gains in plate and special steel segments, indicating a robust market performance [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and digital transformation in the steel industry, with companies like Fangda Special Steel and Zhangxuan Technology implementing smart systems to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [14][16][17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The steel sub-sectors, including plates, special steels, and pipes, saw price increases of 12.77%, 11.42%, and 4.44% respectively for the week ending March 1, 2026 [6][7]. - Year-to-date, special steel, plate, and pipe sectors have increased by 17.23%, 16.43%, and 15.27% respectively [6][7]. Important Industry Events - The first batch of enterprises meeting the 2025 regulatory conditions was announced, which includes 230 companies categorized into regulatory and leading enterprises [11][12]. - During the Two Sessions, some steel companies were instructed to reduce furnace loads by 30% to improve air quality [13]. Key Company Announcements - Notable transactions and shareholder meetings were reported for companies such as Baogang Group and Chongqing Steel, indicating active corporate governance and market engagement [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with stable dividends, high technical barriers, and those in the upstream resource sector, suggesting specific companies for potential investment [20].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the steel sector, indicating strong potential for price appreciation due to undervaluation and favorable market conditions [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese industrialization phase is entering a bull market, with significant upward momentum expected in precious and small metals, while black metals are also gaining attention due to recent price increases [2]. - The steel sector is currently undervalued, with many companies showing strong safety margins, making them attractive investment opportunities [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation over price trends, suggesting that long-term asset pricing should consider cyclical factors [2]. - The steel industry's absolute valuation has improved from a low point to a moderately low level, indicating potential for absolute returns [2][6]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has increased by 28,000 tons to 233,300 tons, while overall steel production continues to decline, particularly in rebar [11][17]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 87.5%, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous week [17]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 7.8%, and social inventory rising by 9.6% [24][26]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 12.958 million tons, with rebar inventory at 5.678 million tons, reflecting a 14.7% increase week-on-week [26][39]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products improved by 23.7% week-on-week, with rebar demand showing a significant recovery [39][49]. - The report notes a notable increase in rebar apparent consumption, which reached 805,000 tons, up 95.7% from the previous week [49]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $99.8 per ton, reflecting a 3.4% increase week-on-week [57]. - The report indicates that the supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has increased, while port inventories have slightly risen [46][57]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report notes a slight decline in the comprehensive steel price index, which is at 120.8, down 0.1% week-on-week [71]. - Current spot prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai are reported at 3,070 yuan/ton and 3,200 yuan/ton, respectively, with minor week-on-week declines [71]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Xining Special Steel (600782.SH) - Buy - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) - Buy - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) - Buy - Baosteel (600019.SH) - Buy - Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ) - Buy - Liugang (601003.SH) - Buy - Yongjin (603995.SH) - Buy - Changbao (002478.SZ) - Buy [8].