Caitong Securities(601108) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 01:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company exhibits a neutral characteristic in proprietary trading and has strong internet customer acquisition capabilities. The ongoing market trend is expected to drive an increase in account market share, while the asset management business remains robust [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were CNY 4.44 billion and CNY 1.47 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 10% and 2%. The net profit for the third quarter was CNY 550 million, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 17% [3]. - The annualized weighted average ROE for the first three quarters was 5.6%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The equity multiplier (excluding customer margin) was 3.2 times, a decrease of 0.1 times from the beginning of the year [3]. - The company has adjusted its market transaction volume assumptions and revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to CNY 2.2 billion, CNY 2.8 billion, and CNY 3.4 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4%, +27%, and +23% [3]. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage net income for the first three quarters was CNY 830 million, down 8% year-on-year. The average daily stock trading volume in Q3 2024 was CNY 807.3 billion, a decrease of 12% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Investment banking revenue for the first three quarters was CNY 390 million, down 29% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue of CNY 110 million, down 22% quarter-on-quarter and 52% year-on-year [3]. - Asset management revenue remained flat year-on-year at CNY 1.18 billion for the first three quarters, with Q3 revenue of CNY 360 million, down 26% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is CNY 8.18, with a total market capitalization of CNY 37.986 billion. The stock has a P/B ratio of 1.0 for 2024, 1.0 for 2025, and 0.9 for 2026 [2][4]. - The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is CNY 0.5, CNY 0.6, and CNY 0.7, respectively [3][4].