wanhua(SH:600309) Huaan Securities·2024-10-30 01:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.919 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year and 27.33% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company faced short-term pressure on performance due to maintenance activities in Yantai and BC, which affected production and sales volumes. The prices of TDI and other products have also declined [1] - Future demand for MDI is expected to improve due to the "old-for-new" policy and anticipated interest rate cuts in the US, which may support prices as the downstream demand enters the peak season before the Spring Festival [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175.361 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 191.805 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.4% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16.816 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 15.307 billion yuan in 2024, which represents a decline of 9.0% [4][7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.8% in 2023 and slightly decrease to 16.1% in 2024, before recovering to 17.7% in 2025 and 2026 [4][7] Production and Capacity - The production volumes for Q3 2024 were 1.38 million tons for polyurethane, 1.3 million tons for petrochemicals, and 450,000 tons for new materials, with respective quarter-on-quarter changes of -6.1%, -5.8%, and -15.1% [1] - The company is advancing the construction and commissioning of new MDI and TDI facilities in Ningbo and Fujian, with long-term plans to expand MDI capacity to 1.5 million tons per year [1][2] Market Outlook - The export volume of polymer MDI reached 1.0437 million tons in 2023, while pure MDI exports were 121,000 tons, indicating sustained high export levels despite weak overseas demand [1][2] - The overall petrochemical segment is expected to maintain revenue growth, supported by limited impacts from LPG trade and PDH maintenance [1]