LFX(600612) 开源证券·2024-10-30 02:10Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 15.3% and 9.6% YoY respectively [1] - Gold price fluctuations and weak consumer demand were the core factors affecting sales [1] - The company's brand heritage and state-owned enterprise reforms are expected to drive recovery, with reasonable valuation supporting the "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 52.582 billion yuan (-15.3% YoY), net profit: 1.776 billion yuan (-9.6% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 revenue: 12.623 billion yuan (-41.9% YoY), net profit: 372 million yuan (-46.2% YoY) [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast revised down to 2.024/2.180/2.388 billion yuan from 2.435/2.693/2.974 billion yuan [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin: 8.6% (+0.4pct YoY), Q3 gross margin: 6.5% (-1.0pct YoY) [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net margin: 4.3% (+0.1pct YoY), Q3 net margin: 3.7% (-0.6pct YoY) [2] Industry and Market Conditions - July-September 2024 gold and jewelry retail sales declined by 10.4%/12.0%/7.8% YoY respectively [2] - High gold price volatility and cautious dealer inventory management impacted wholesale shipments [2] Brand and Product Strategy - Launched "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Happy Events" series to rejuvenate the century-old brand [3] - Developed crossover collaborations, such as the "Lao Feng Xiang × Beast Gold Car Fragrance" which won the 2024 Shanghai Gold List Souvenir Award [3] - Expanded international presence with the opening of a Treasure Gold-themed store in Hong Kong in August 2024 [3] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 3.87/4.17/4.56 yuan [1] - Current PE ratio: 14.5/13.5/12.3x for 2024-2026 [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 62.387/69.897/77.112 billion yuan [4] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecast: 8.6%/8.0%/8.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net margin forecast: 4.3%/4.2%/4.1% [4]