中国财险2024年3季报点评：投资端驱动业绩同比高增，灾害事故拖累3季度COR

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 26.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, aligning with expectations. The underwriting profit and total investment income were 6.44 billion yuan and 27.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% and an increase of 70%. The Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.26 billion yuan, turning from a loss of 870 million yuan in Q3 2023, but down 35% quarter-on-quarter. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters increased by 0.8 percentage points to 98.2%, up from 96.2% in H1 2024. Due to improvements driven by the equity market, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 36.5 billion, 36.8 billion, and 38.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 1.7, and 1.7 yuan [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's insurance service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 364.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The revenue from auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 219.5 billion yuan and 144.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 6.1%. The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters increased to 98.2%, with Q3 COR reaching 102%, influenced by natural disasters leading to higher claims [4][5]. Investment Income - Total investment income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, with Q3 showing a remarkable increase of 1261%. The annualized total investment return rate was 5.9%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from significant improvements in the equity market [5]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leader in the property insurance industry, with a competitive advantage. The current dividend yield is 4.39%, and the current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 6.8, 6.8, and 6.4 for 2024-2026, and P/B ratios of 1.0, 0.9, and 0.8, respectively. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these metrics [3][4].