洪城环境2024Q3点评：扣非归母净利润同比增长15.8%，收现比环比显著改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a 15.8% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024, despite a 1.22% decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][3]. - The decline in revenue for Q3 2024 is attributed to a decrease in engineering and gas connection income, while the increase in net profit is due to improved gross margins and reduced financial expense ratios [2][3]. - The company has initiated a pipeline drinking water business and is advancing integrated plant-network projects, which are expected to generate additional revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.643 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 922 million yuan, an increase of 3.82% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 905 million yuan, up 12.23% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.697 billion yuan, down 7.77% year-on-year, while net profit was 317 million yuan, up 4.69% year-on-year, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 302 million yuan, up 15.82% year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow and Investment - The cash collection ratio for Q1-Q3 2024 was 90.94%, down 10.21 percentage points year-on-year, but the Q3 cash collection ratio improved to 101.08%, showing a significant recovery [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.376 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.77% year-on-year, while Q3 saw a net cash flow of 766 million yuan, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7x, 10.2x, and 9.7x [4]. - The company commits to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2024 to 2026, with an expected dividend yield of 4.66% for 2024 [4].