行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 26 日 第二产业用电回暖 冷冬预期有望提 升销气增速 - ⚫ 电力：25Q3 第二产业是拉动全社会用电量的主要动力。根据国家能源局数据，9 月单月全社会用 电量 8886 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.5%。其中第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量分别同比增 长 7.3%、5.7%、6.3%、-2.6%。累计数据来看，1-9 月，全社会用电量累计 77675 亿千瓦时， 同比增长 4.6%。1-9 月，第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 26 年 月 日 环保 长江双碳权交易开闸，碳管理迎"量价齐升" 政策引领环境权益交易，跨省协作共助绿色产业发展。1、10 月 23 日，湖北省人 民政府办公厅印发《生态环境权益交易平台建设实施方案》，方案明确提出分阶段 建设目标：到 2027 年建成功能完备的生态环境权益交易平台，到 2030 年全面建 成服务长江流域的生态环境权益交易中心，平台将集成碳排放权、排污权、生态产 品价值实现、固体废物资源化利用和绿色金融五大核心功能。该方案将系统性利 好碳交易、碳管理等细分行业，建议关注标的聚光科技。2、安徽省人民政府办公 厅、河南省人民政府办公厅联合印发《皖豫省际毗邻地区合作发展实施方案》，目 标为构建跨省域的污染联防联治体系与绿色低碳循环经济体系，最终将皖豫毗邻 区域建设成为中部地区绿色合作发展新样板，该政策将加速两省污染防治体系升 级，并为环保上下游产业链带来机遇，建议关注环境监测及水治理领域标的如碧 水源。 当周碳交易行情：本周（10.20-10.24）全国碳市场综合价格行情为：最高价 55.67 元/吨，最低价 51.21 元/吨， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The demand for waste incineration in Southeast Asia and Central Asia is urgent, driven by rapid urbanization and rising consumer spending, leading to a significant increase in municipal solid waste generation [6][17]. - Most Southeast Asian countries have a waste incineration treatment ratio below 10%, while Central Asia is even more lagging, with nearly 100% reliance on landfill disposal as of the end of 2024 [6][19]. - Chinese companies have established a competitive advantage in overseas waste incineration projects due to their technological strength and comprehensive solution capabilities, with over ten new contracts signed in 2023, totaling nearly 27,000 tons/day of capacity [7][28]. - The waste incineration sector is characterized by high certainty and steady growth, making it a premium absolute return sector [8][35]. Summary by Sections Waste Incineration Demand in "Belt and Road" Countries - The increase in waste generation is significant, with cities like Ho Chi Minh City producing about 9,700 tons of waste daily, of which only 33% is treated through incineration and composting [6][21]. - Indonesia faces severe waste management challenges, with over 35% of waste unprocessed and directly entering waterways, prompting government plans for incineration plants in 30 cities [6][21]. Economic Conditions Favoring Incineration Technology - By 2024, the GDP per capita in major Southeast Asian countries is projected to be between $4,000 and $10,000, indicating readiness for the adoption of incineration technology [6][24]. - Countries like Thailand and Malaysia have GDPs of $7,345 and approximately $11,867, respectively, which are comparable to China's GDP levels when it began promoting waste incineration [6][24]. Active Project Bidding and High Participation of Chinese Companies - The trend of regular and large-scale project bidding in Southeast Asia and Central Asia is evident, with Chinese companies dominating the competitive landscape [7][28]. - In 2023, Chinese firms signed contracts for waste incineration projects with a combined capacity of nearly 27,000 tons/day, primarily in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan [7][28]. Growth Potential and Investment Strategy - Southeast Asia is expected to remain a core market, with project bidding continuing to increase, while Central Asia is in the early stages of development [8][35]. - The integration of waste incineration with new business models such as energy storage and digital capabilities is anticipated to create additional value-added services in overseas environmental projects [8][35]. Recommended Industry Leaders - Key industry leaders recommended include Huanlan Environment, China Everbright, Weiming Environmental, Yongxing Co., Green Power, Junxin Co., Sanfeng Environment, Xirong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [8][36].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent adjustments in the value-added tax (VAT) policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability for operators in these sectors [9][10]. - It notes the competitive pricing results for electricity in Xinjiang and Gansu, with Xinjiang's prices nearing the upper limit of the bidding range, suggesting a favorable environment for renewable energy operators [8]. - The report discusses the decline in global LNG prices, with China's comprehensive LNG import price reaching a four-year low, which could benefit domestic gas companies [12][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's mechanism electricity bidding results show a scale of 36 billion kWh for solar and 185 billion kWh for wind, with prices at 0.235 CNY/kWh and 0.252 CNY/kWh respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][8]. - The VAT policy changes will eliminate the 50% VAT refund for onshore wind from November 1, 2025, while maintaining it for offshore wind until the end of 2027 [9][10]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, China Nuclear Power, and Longyuan Power due to their stable growth prospects [11]. 2. Gas Sector - Global gas prices have shown slight declines, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, reflecting a 2.90% weekly drop [12][15]. - China's LNG import price has dropped to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021, driven by lower oil prices affecting long-term contracts [27][29]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and economic recovery may enhance profitability [29]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt-for-equity swaps and the increasing stability of returns for green energy operators, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Hongcheng Environment [11]. - It highlights the ongoing rise in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with several rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance in the coming years [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, highlighting potential investment opportunities in renewable energy and gas companies [3][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent adjustments in value-added tax policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability in the short to medium term [10][11]. - It notes the significant drop in LNG import prices, reaching a four-year low, which could benefit gas companies and consumers [13][29]. - The report suggests that the competitive bidding results for electricity prices in Xinjiang and Gansu indicate varying strategies among renewable energy operators, which could lead to improved profit margins [9][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's competitive bidding results show a mechanism electricity price of 0.252 CNY/kWh for wind power, close to the upper limit, while Gansu's price is 0.1954 CNY/kWh, near the lower limit [5][9]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for onshore wind power, effective November 1, 2025, will eliminate the 50% refund policy, while offshore wind will retain it until the end of 2027 [10][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, Sichuan Investment Energy, and China Nuclear Power due to their stable growth prospects [12]. 2. Gas Sector - The report highlights a slight decline in global gas prices, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, down 2.90% week-on-week, and LNG import prices in China dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021 [13][29]. - It suggests that the cost reduction in upstream resources and the recovery of the macro economy will benefit Hong Kong gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [31]. - The report anticipates that the LNG prices may stabilize as demand increases with the onset of colder weather [29][31]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, power, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [35]. - The report notes that the power equipment sector lagged behind the index, indicating potential investment opportunities in other sectors [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming competitive bidding for renewable energy projects in Anhui, with a bidding range set between 0.2 CNY/kWh and 0.3844 CNY/kWh [41][42]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power, which reported varying results in their electricity generation [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental protection sector, including Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment [5][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of urban renewal through new infrastructure, with a focus on air pollution control and the transition to cleaner energy sources. It emphasizes the positive impact of recent government policies on environmental monitoring and VOCs management [1][29]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by historically low interest rates, which favors high-dividend and growth-oriented assets in the environmental sector [2][31]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments issued an action plan to enhance urban infrastructure resilience through digital and intelligent upgrades, benefiting environmental monitoring sectors [1][9]. - Jiangsu Province's 2025 air pollution prevention plan aims to eliminate high-emission equipment and promote clean energy, positively impacting VOCs management and environmental monitoring industries [17][29]. - The environmental sector is currently at a historical low in terms of institutional holdings and valuations, suggesting a potential for sustained rebounds [31]. Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of 2.45%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% [34]. - The top-performing stocks in the environmental sector included Shuangliang Energy and Tianhao Energy, while the worst performers were Changqing Group and Hanwei Technology [34]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a major innovation initiative for environmental technology, focusing on key areas such as air and water pollution control [43]. - Guangdong Province introduced measures to accelerate technological upgrades in industrial enterprises, aiming to support over 9,000 companies annually [44]. - Chongqing released a compliance guide for enterprises to manage environmental risks throughout their lifecycle [45]. Key Companies - GaoNeng Environment focuses on hazardous waste resource utilization and environmental operation services, with a strong order pipeline due to regulatory changes [33]. - Huicheng Environmental is advancing in hazardous waste projects and has made significant progress in waste plastic recycling technology, indicating strong growth potential [33].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23 points, above the annual line, with a slight increase of 0.10% on the day, and the total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,948.66 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest close, 19 A-shares have surpassed the annual line, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The stocks with the largest deviation rates include Shenglong Co., Changshan Beiming, and Youlide, with deviation rates of 9.96%, 3.76%, and 2.52% respectively [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares today was 1,948.66 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Highlights - Shenglong Co. (603178) saw a daily increase of 10.00% with a turnover rate of 9.13% and a latest price of 21.45 yuan, resulting in a deviation rate of 9.96% [1] - Changshan Beiming (000158) increased by 9.98% with a turnover rate of 9.68%, latest price at 24.57 yuan, and a deviation rate of 3.76% [1] - Youlide (688628) experienced a 4.23% increase, with a turnover rate of 2.91%, latest price of 36.22 yuan, and a deviation rate of 2.52% [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3916.86 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.12% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 909.4 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 20 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Shenglong Co., Ltd. (603178) with a deviation rate of 9.96% - Lege Co., Ltd. (300729) with a deviation rate of 2.14% - Jinguang Co., Ltd. (300510) with a deviation rate of 1.75% [1] Deviation Rate Rankings - The following stocks have the highest deviation rates after breaking the annual line: - Shenglong Co., Ltd. (603178): Today's change of 10.00%, turnover rate of 4.72%, latest price at 21.45 yuan [1] - Lege Co., Ltd. (300729): Today's change of 4.01%, turnover rate of 4.10%, latest price at 15.58 yuan [1] - Jinguang Co., Ltd. (300510): Today's change of 2.00%, turnover rate of 5.62%, latest price at 4.60 yuan [1] Stocks with Smaller Deviation Rates - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Changjiang Electric Power (600900): Today's change of 0.36%, latest price at 28.03 yuan, deviation rate of 0.01% [2] - Beiqi Blue Valley (600733): Today's change of 3.05%, latest price at 8.11 yuan, deviation rate of 0.03% [2] - Hongcheng Environment (600461): Today's change of 0.22%, latest price at 9.10 yuan, deviation rate of 0.05% [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental protection industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [9]. Core Insights - The municipal water sector shows stable operations, with some companies benefiting from strategic expansions and adjustments in sewage treatment prices. However, the engineering business is expected to decline due to decreased demand [3]. - The waste incineration sector remains stable, with operational improvements despite a slowdown in new project construction and bidding. Different companies exhibit varied performance due to factors like historical revenue recognition and depreciation from new capacity [3]. - The sanitation market is stable, with an increase in orders for unmanned sanitation services, indicating a digital transformation in urban services [3]. - Equipment performance varies significantly across different sectors, with conventional equipment facing margin pressure due to intense competition, while power environmental equipment benefits from increased demand [3]. Summary by Category Municipal Water - Overall stable operations with some companies like Tianyuan Environmental and Zhongshan Public Utilities showing significant year-on-year net profit growth of 18% and 32% respectively for Q1-3 2025 [4]. Waste Incineration - The sector is experiencing steady operational improvements, with companies like Huanlan Environment and Green Power expected to see net profit growth of 16% and 15% respectively for Q1-3 2025 [4]. Sanitation - The sanitation market is stable, with companies like Yingfeng Environment and Yuhua Tian expected to see net profit growth of 3% and 5% respectively for Q1-3 2025 [4]. Equipment - Conventional equipment companies are expected to see a decline in net profit growth, with Jingjin Equipment projected to drop by 25% for Q1-3 2025. In contrast, Qingda Environmental is expected to see a significant increase of 255% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with stable profitability and improving cash flows in the municipal environmental sector, including Zhongshan Public Utilities, Junxin Co., and Huanlan Environment [3]. - For unmanned sanitation, companies like Yingfeng Environment and Yuhua Tian are highlighted as key players in the digital transformation of urban services [3]. - The report also suggests focusing on SAF suppliers and green methanol producers as EU policies begin to take effect, with companies like Haineng Energy and Pengyao Environmental being potential beneficiaries [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental protection industry as "Overweight" for the third quarter of 2025, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][9]. Core Insights - Municipal water services are operating steadily, with some companies benefiting from strategic expansions and adjustments in sewage treatment pricing. However, the overall demand for sewage engineering is declining, leading to a forecasted slight decrease in engineering business [3]. - The waste incineration sector is stable, with operational improvements despite a slowdown in new project construction and bidding. Different companies are experiencing varied profit growth due to factors like historical electricity revenue recognition and depreciation from new capacity [3]. - The sanitation market remains stable, with an increase in orders for unmanned sanitation services, indicating a shift towards digital transformation in urban services [3]. - Equipment performance is diverging based on downstream influences, with conventional equipment facing margin pressure while power environmental equipment and water treatment equipment are expected to see significant profit growth [3]. Summary by Category Municipal Water Services - Overall operations are stable, with projected net profit growth for major companies: Tianyuan Environmental +18%, Xingrong Environment +5%, Hongcheng Environment +3%, and Zhongshan Public +32% for Q1-3 2025 [3][4]. Waste Incineration - The sector is expected to see varied profit growth among major companies: Hanlan Environment +16%, Green Power +15%, Junxin Co. +47%, Chengfa Environment +13%, and Yongxing Co. +8% for Q1-3 2025 [3][4]. Sanitation - Major companies are projected to have stable net profit growth: Yingfeng Environment +3% and Yuhua Tian +5% for Q1-3 2025 [3][4]. Equipment Products - Conventional equipment is expected to see a slight decline in net profit growth, with Jingjin Equipment projected at -25%. In contrast, power environmental equipment like Qingda Environmental is expected to grow by +255% [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on municipal environmental companies such as Zhongshan Public, Junxin Co., Hanlan Environment, and others due to stable profitability and improving cash flow [3]. - For unmanned sanitation, companies like Yingfeng Environment and Yuhua Tian are highlighted for their potential in the digital transformation of urban services [3]. - The report also suggests monitoring suppliers of bio-aviation fuel and green methanol, as well as companies involved in reverse osmosis membrane technology due to ongoing market trends [3].