[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 28 日 证券研究报告•金融工程报告 机器学习金融工程月报 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 机器学习因子选股月报（2026 年 2 月） 截至 2026年 1月 28日，1月当期多头组合超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合） 分别为国防军工、通信、农林牧渔、家电、电力设备及新能源，多头组合相对 行业指数超额收益分别为 11.41%、8.40%、7.85%、6.01%以及 4.98%。 近一年来看，多头组合月平均超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合）分别为房地 产、家电、商贸零售、建筑、国防军工，超额收益分别为 2.17%、2.09%、1.69%、 1.69%以及 1.58%。且 29 个中信一级行业（除综合）中， GAN_GRU 因子 多头组合近一年有 6个行业未跑赢对应中信一级行业指数（电子、煤炭、非银 金融、传媒、有色、通信）。 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑琳琳 执业证号：S1250522110001 邮箱：zhengll@swsc.com.cn 分析师：祝晨宇 执业证号：S1250525100004 邮箱：zhcy@sw ...

城市供水的流程图 内容概况：随着中国城市供水综合生产能力的提升，供水总量也快速增长，数据显示，2024年中国城市 供水总量为704.88亿吨，同比增长2.52%。其中，生活用供水总量为402.46亿吨，同比增长3.36%；生产 用供水总量为173.34亿吨，同比增长1.92%；其他供水总量为129.08亿吨，同比增长0.77%。总体看，我 国城市供水行业已进入成熟期，未来随着城镇化进程的持续推进，预计供水需求仍将有所增长，但增幅 或将放缓。 相关上市企业：北控水务集团（00371）、首创环保（600008）、瀚蓝环境（600323）、城投控股 （600649）、武汉控股（600168）、洪城环境（600461）、金科环境（688466）、碧水源（300070）、 重庆水务（601158）等。 相关企业：中法水务投资有限公司等。 关键词：城市供水行业政策、城镇化率、城市供水行业产业链、城市供水管道长度、城市供水综合生产 能力及产能利用率、城市供水总量、城市用水人口数量、城市供水行业发展趋势 一、城市供水行业概述 城市供水是依据建筑学规范建立的市政基础设施系统，由水源取水设施、水处理厂和输配水管网三大核 心构成。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in waste incineration and the opportunities for companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where there is a projected increase in waste incineration capacity [10][15] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles and the growth of unmanned sanitation projects, indicating a shift towards automation and electrification in the industry [17][20] - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual drivers of value and growth, emphasizing the importance of marketization and efficiency improvements in the environmental sector [24][28] Industry Trends - Waste Incineration Growth: The report estimates a potential increase of approximately 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN countries and India, corresponding to an investment scale of about 250 billion yuan [10] - Unmanned Sanitation Equipment: In 2025, the total amount of contracts for unmanned sanitation projects exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 150% [17] - New Energy Sanitation Vehicles: Sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, reflecting a growing trend towards electrification in the sanitation sector [20][30] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, Sains, and others, focusing on their growth potential in both domestic and international markets [4][15] - The report suggests that companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are expected to benefit significantly from overseas expansion and high-value projects [15][24] - The report also highlights the importance of dividend increases and return on equity (ROE) improvements for companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power [15][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the profitability of waste incineration projects in Indonesia is significantly higher than in China due to favorable pricing and operational conditions [12][15] - The report indicates that the market for lithium battery recycling is improving, with rising metal prices and better margins for recycling projects [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental monitoring sector, such as Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment [6][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drivers of policy and demand in the environmental monitoring sector, indicating that leading companies will continue to benefit from recent regulatory changes [1][12]. - Recent government guidelines signal a shift in soil remediation practices, creating multiple growth opportunities in soil remediation and environmental consulting sectors [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend assets and growth-oriented companies in the current low macroeconomic interest rate environment [2][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report discusses the release of guidelines by three departments to enhance the connection between pollution site remediation and development, marking a transition in soil remediation practices [9][12]. - It also covers the introduction of differentiated management for air quality performance in key industries, which provides incentives for companies to transition towards greener practices [13][20]. - The report notes that institutional holdings and valuations in the environmental sector are at historical lows, suggesting a potential for sustained rebounds [22]. Market Performance - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a reported increase of 4.72% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.84% increase [24]. - Sub-sectors such as monitoring (5.55%), energy saving (7.99%), and solid waste (5.67%) showed significant gains, indicating strong market interest [24]. Industry News - The report mentions the release of the 2026 version of hazardous waste management guidelines, aimed at improving the classification and management of solid waste [35]. - It also highlights the recognition of zero-carbon factories in Henan Province, showcasing advancements in energy efficiency and environmental standards [36]. Key Announcements - The report includes performance forecasts for various companies, indicating significant expected growth for Huicheng Environmental and GaoNeng Environment due to their strong project pipelines and technological advancements [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in overall power generation in 2025, primarily driven by wind and solar energy contributions, while traditional coal power generation shows a decline [8][9]. - The extreme cold weather in the U.S. has led to a significant spike in natural gas prices due to increased demand and supply constraints [18][22]. - The report suggests various investment opportunities across different segments of the energy sector, including coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, renewable energy, and gas companies [18][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In December 2025, total power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. Coal power generation decreased by 3.2%, while renewable sources like wind and solar saw significant growth [10][11]. - For the entire year of 2025, total power generation reached 9715.9 billion kWh, up 2.2% from the previous year, with coal power down by 1.0% and solar power up by 24.4% [15][19]. 2. Natural Gas - As of January 23, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price surged to $30.72/mmBtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 903.53%. European gas prices also rose significantly due to low inventory levels and increased demand [20][28]. - The report notes that the extreme cold weather has tightened supply and demand dynamics, leading to higher global gas prices, particularly in Europe and Northeast Asia [22][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations [18]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to favorable conditions for energy storage and reduced capital expenditures [19]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [18]. - Renewable energy operators such as Xinte Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new market rules enhance the stability of returns [18]. - Gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Liuhe are suggested for their potential recovery in profitability due to cost reductions and improved pricing mechanisms [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the environmental sector, including Huanlan Environment, Sanfeng Environment, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [5]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is entering a critical phase of carbon reduction, with a focus on recycling and waste incineration. The demand for green energy and recycling industries is expected to rise significantly as China transitions to a dual control system for carbon emissions starting in 2026 [4][17]. - The introduction of the EU carbon tariff in 2026 is anticipated to increase the cost of exports from China, prompting companies to adopt greener practices to mitigate carbon emissions [4][17]. - High dividend assets in the environmental sector are expected to remain attractive in 2026, with companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment showing significant stock price increases in 2025 [4][5]. - The bio-diesel sector is experiencing a rise in UCO prices, which are expected to benefit companies involved in waste oil processing and bio-fuel production [19][25]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The environmental sector has shown strong performance in 2026, with water treatment, energy-saving, and recycling sectors leading the gains. Companies are diversifying into secondary businesses to enhance growth [11][14]. Section 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The report highlights the implementation of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Governance Action Plan" aimed at reducing industrial solid waste and enhancing recycling efforts [33]. - The introduction of the carbon trading market and the EU carbon tariff are significant regulatory changes that will impact the industry [17][31]. Section 3: Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Huanlan Environment, Shanghai Industrial Holdings, and others, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and policy support [4][5]. - The report notes that the environmental sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, suggesting potential for future growth [45][52]. Section 4: Financial Analysis - The financial metrics for key companies indicate a positive outlook, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios suggesting undervaluation relative to historical performance [5]. Section 5: Market Trends - The report tracks the performance of various sub-sectors within the environmental industry, noting that energy-saving manufacturing and recycling have shown the most significant growth [49]. Section 6: Export and Pricing Trends - UCO prices have remained strong, with recent data showing a 6.1% increase compared to early 2025, indicating robust demand for bio-diesel feedstock [19][23]. Section 7: Carbon Market Activity - The carbon market has seen significant trading volumes, with recent data indicating a closing price of 78.50 CNY per ton, reflecting ongoing market activity and interest [31]. Section 8: Company Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like Dongjiang Environmental and Zhongyuan Environmental indicate strategic acquisitions aimed at enhancing operational capabilities and market positioning [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including 惠城环保 (Huicheng Environmental), 高能环境 (Gaoneng Environment), and 洪城环境 (Hongcheng Environment) [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of multi-dimensional policy dividends that accelerate the expansion of solid waste recycling, benefiting leading companies in the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors [1]. - The introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Used Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" aims to enhance resource recycling efficiency and support the green, low-carbon development of the new energy vehicle industry [11]. - The "Hunan Province Zero Carbon Factory Construction Plan" focuses on low-carbon transformation across manufacturing processes, establishing a foundation for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality [17]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report emphasizes the favorable policies for solid waste management and the expected growth in demand for resource recycling, recommending attention to leading companies in solid waste management such as 格林美 (Greeenme) and environmental monitoring firms like 雪迪龙 (Xuedilong) [1][12]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by historically low interest rates, presents opportunities for high-dividend assets and growth-oriented companies [2][19]. Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed, with a weekly decline of 1.74%, lagging behind the broader market indices [3][22]. - The report notes that the solid waste sub-sector showed a positive growth of 1.53%, while other sub-sectors like air quality and energy-saving experienced declines [3][22]. Key Announcements - The report outlines significant policy developments, including the launch of the "Industrial Internet Platform High-Quality Development Action Plan" and the "Comprehensive Green Manufacturing System Action Plan" in Sichuan Province, aimed at enhancing industrial sustainability [33][34]. - The report also mentions the carbon emissions trading market, with a total transaction volume of 8.7 billion tons and a cumulative transaction value of 582 billion yuan as of January 16, 2026 [2]. Focused Companies - 惠城环保 (Huicheng Environmental) is recognized for its strong growth potential, particularly in hazardous waste projects and the recycling of waste plastics, with a projected EPS growth from 0.22 yuan in 2024 to 4.05 yuan in 2027 [4]. - 高能环境 (Gaoneng Environment) aims to become a leading global environmental service provider, with a focus on hazardous waste resource utilization and environmental engineering [21]. - 洪城环境 (Hongcheng Environment) is highlighted for its consistent performance and high dividend yield, with a projected EPS of 1.03 yuan in 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the critical role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in aviation decarbonization, highlighting the scarcity and price increase of waste oil resources during the SAF production expansion cycle [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies such as Huanlan Environment (600323), Longjing Environmental Protection (600388), and others in the environmental sector [2]. - Companies to watch include Dayu Water-saving (300021) and Lian Tai Environmental Protection (603797) [2]. Industry Insights - SAF is identified as the only feasible solution for aviation decarbonization, with a focus on the HEFA route using waste oil (UCO) as raw material. The EU mandates increasing SAF blending ratios from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, with projected SAF demand reaching 3,662 million tons by 2050 [3]. - By the end of 2025, domestic SAF production capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million tons per year, with total planned capacity of 4.4 million tons per year [3]. - The price of SAF is projected to rise significantly due to supply constraints, with a potential increase of over 50% from the beginning of the year [3]. Policy Tracking - The government is set to invest over 1 billion yuan in the Yangtze River protection projects from 2025 to 2027, with a focus on sewage pipeline construction and ecological restoration [4]. - Investment suggestions include companies involved in water treatment and sewage management, such as Bihui Source and Energy Conservation Guozhen (300388) [4]. Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy focuses on value and growth, emphasizing the importance of marketization and efficiency improvements in the solid waste sector, with potential dividend increases [5]. - The report highlights the significance of the dual carbon drive, with recommendations for companies involved in renewable resources and waste oil production [6]. Industry Tracking - In the sanitation equipment sector, sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 64.01% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 18.60% [7]. - The price of biodiesel has decreased, leading to a decline in profit margins, while lithium battery recycling shows improved profitability due to rising lithium prices [7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the gaming industry as "high" for investment [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan," which aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, including a target of 4.5 billion tons of comprehensive utilization of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycling of key resources [2][5][7] - It highlights the shift in the energy sector towards diversified revenue models for thermal power companies, recommending several key players in the industry [8] - The report discusses the current trends in natural gas pricing, noting a general decline in global gas prices due to mild weather conditions and stable supply [10][29] - It outlines the transition of hydrogen energy towards becoming a "regulator" of the power grid, emphasizing its role in energy storage and management [31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection - The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" was released on January 4, aiming to enhance solid waste management and promote a green economy [5] - By 2030, the plan targets a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycling of key resources [2][6] - The focus is on industrial, urban, and agricultural waste, with a comprehensive governance approach to illegal dumping and construction waste [6][7] 2. Natural Gas - As of January 9, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $2.87/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 28.24% [10][11] - The report notes that the European gas prices have also decreased, with the TTF spot price at €29.00/MWh, down 1.43% week-on-week [10][16] - The overall gas market is characterized by stable supply and mild weather, leading to lower demand and prices [10][29] 3. Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the integration of hydrogen energy into the power grid, highlighting its potential for large-scale energy storage and management [31] - It emphasizes the role of hydrogen in addressing renewable energy challenges and improving grid stability [31][33] - The report recommends companies involved in hydrogen production and technology as key investment opportunities [33] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the electric power equipment, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 5 to January 9 [34] - It provides insights into the performance of various sectors, indicating a positive trend for certain energy and environmental stocks [36][39] 5. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the establishment of national zero-carbon parks, which will receive significant support for green energy initiatives [39] - It mentions the successful completion of green power transactions in Gansu, indicating a growing market for renewable energy [40][43] - The report includes updates on major companies' performance and strategic developments in the energy sector [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan," which aims to enhance solid waste management and promote a circular economy by 2030, targeting a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recyclable resources annually [2][6][8]. - Global natural gas prices have generally declined, influenced by mild weather conditions, with significant drops in prices across various markets, including a 28.24% decrease in the US Henry Hub spot price [11][12][18]. - The hydrogen energy sector is evolving towards becoming a key regulator in the power grid, with initiatives to integrate clean hydrogen production and utilization into microgrid systems, enhancing energy storage capabilities [35][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection - The "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan" aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, with specific targets for waste recycling and resource utilization [2][6]. - The plan emphasizes the need for a circular economy that does not rely on subsidies, focusing on industrial collaboration and technological innovation to create a sustainable waste management system [7][8]. 2. Natural Gas - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the US Henry Hub spot price at $2.87/mmBtu, reflecting a 28.24% week-over-week drop [11][12]. - The report notes that the demand for natural gas is expected to remain weak in Northeast Asia, contributing to a slight decrease in LNG prices [11][30]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated natural gas companies that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [32]. 3. Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the strategic positioning of hydrogen energy as a flexible load regulator within the power grid, highlighting its potential to enhance energy storage and consumption efficiency [35][37]. - It emphasizes the importance of hydrogen energy in achieving energy security and autonomy, recommending companies involved in hydrogen production [35][37]. 4. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the electricity equipment, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the review period [38]. 5. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report outlines significant developments in the renewable energy sector, including the establishment of national zero-carbon parks and the increase in green electricity trading volumes, which are expected to enhance market opportunities for leading companies in the sector [44][48].