华发股份：聚焦核心区域，回购彰显信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.33 billion yuan, down 39.6% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced project delivery and profit recognition [2][3]. - The company has a relatively sufficient amount of unrecognized resources, with contract liabilities amounting to 90.83 billion yuan, which is 1.6 times its revenue over the past year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on core regions and has initiated a share buyback plan, which is expected to amount to 300-600 million yuan, with a maximum buyback price of 9.83 yuan per share, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [3]. - The company maintains a cautious investment strategy, focusing on core areas while actively managing financial stability and planning for share buybacks to demonstrate confidence in future development [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.8%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with minority interests accounting for 24.8%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.70 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.79 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.8x, 9.2x, and 8.7x [3][4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to decrease from 451.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 413.8 billion yuan in 2026, while total liabilities are expected to decline from 320 billion yuan to 273.9 billion yuan over the same period [6][8]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 70.8% in 2023 to 66.2% in 2026, indicating improved financial stability [8].