HYMD(SH:600971) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-30 04:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was below market expectations, with revenue of 1.515 billion yuan, down 12.42% year-on-year and 17.79% quarter-on-quarter. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 186 million yuan, down 63.87% year-on-year and 43.07% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The decline in coal production and sales, coupled with unexpected cost increases, has impacted profitability. The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.01, 1.22, and 1.46 yuan respectively [3][5]. - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 7.29 million tons, up 3.83% year-on-year, while sales volume decreased by 1.06% [3]. - The average selling price of coal in the first three quarters was 901 yuan per ton, down 7.6% year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 14.8% to 572 yuan [3]. - The report anticipates that the pressure on performance in Q4 2024 may ease, driven by long-term contracts for coking and thermal coal, and a potential recovery in coal prices due to increased demand from infrastructure projects [3][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 8,393 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 7,160 million yuan in 2024, representing an 8.0% decrease [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2,527 million yuan in 2022, expected to drop to 1,208 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 40.7% [2]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 19.2% in 2022 to 9.1% in 2024 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to rise from 4.70 in 2022 to 9.83 in 2024 [2].