wsdl(600995) Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-30 05:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.519 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.045 billion yuan, up 27.6% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.608 billion yuan, a 33.3% increase, with net profit soaring by 231.5% to 419 million yuan [1][2]. - The significant increase in water inflow has led to a substantial rise in power generation from peak-shaving hydropower, with generation volumes for the Tian Sheng Qiao and Lu Bu Ge power plants increasing by 44.1% and 58.6% respectively [2]. - The new energy storage business, bolstered by the launch of the Foshan Bao Tang energy storage station, generated 210 million yuan in revenue, marking a dramatic increase of 209.5% year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 8.261 billion yuan in 2022, which decreased to 5.630 billion yuan in 2023, but is projected to recover to 6.265 billion yuan in 2024, with further growth expected in subsequent years [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1.287 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.953 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][9]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to increase from 4.161 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.400 billion yuan in 2026, indicating improving operational efficiency [5][9]. Market Participation and Future Outlook - The company is expanding its pumped storage capacity, with a total installed capacity of 10.28 million kilowatts and additional projects under construction that will add another 10.8 million kilowatts [3][4]. - The implementation of a market trading mechanism for pumped storage in Guangdong province is expected to enhance profitability through participation in the electricity spot market [4]. - The company anticipates net profits of 1.29 billion yuan in 2024, 1.65 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.95 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25.7, 20, and 17 times respectively [4][5].